035
FXUS61 KOKX 290609
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
209 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (SEE
MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRIPLE POINT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM A NEARBY UPPER LOW TO
OUR NORTH. UPWARD FORCING FROM BOTH FEATURES PLUS SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT FROM DEVELOPING UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINE WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT. THIS ALONE POSES A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH FLASH FLOODING, AND THE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WIND
PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS THAT SUPPORTS BACK-BUILDING OF
AND TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. GIVEN YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, THERE
IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING. RIVER FORECAST POINTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD, HOWEVER A COUPLE ARE FORECAST
TO GET PRETTY CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS.
THE PERIOD WHEN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES ARE MOST
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NEARBY AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD, THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED REGARDING ITS END TIME OF 8PM WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE
IN SHORTENING ITS DURATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH - ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL PLUS SLOW MOVING CELL POTENTIAL WITH LINGERING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE NEW LONDON (AND EASTERN SUFFOLK) COUNTIES IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. CAMS SUGGEST A SLOWING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF CELLS WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF CELL TRAINING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE, THEN A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CT. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
LATEST HREF PMM SHOWING A MAX 5-7 IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NE NJ.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST,
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. THIS IS ALSO
FOCUSED MORE ON NE NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC
METRO. THIS IS SHOWN IN SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHEAR
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DECENT INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SOME COLLAPSING STORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES SOME. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT FOR NE NJ AS WELL AS ORANGE AND ROCKLAND
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FULL MOON OCCURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
PRECEDING IT. BY THE TIME THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
ARRIVES, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE OR AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD OFFSET OR AT LEAST NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO TIDAL PILING WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES. THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH ENOUGH THREAT OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS A STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LEVELS
TOUCHING MINOR ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A STATEMENT
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
THEREAFTER, THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE, EXCEPT FOR KGON WHERE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR/LIFR) MAY BE BRIEF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND/OR TSRA. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT KGON WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IFR.
S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT, WITH A FEW GUST 15-20 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NEARBY THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT, IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LOW TO PASS TO
THE EAST OF KGON. KGON MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WITH THE
GRADIENT REMAINING A BIT TIGHTER DURING THE DAY. FOR THE TIME,
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY
LATE MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. KGON IS FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY E/SE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY FOR WIND DIRECTION.
AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT FOR KGON WHICH IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A S/SE WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK AT 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT,
HIGHEST ON THE OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO 5 TO 6 FEET. SCA GUSTS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN
WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
SCA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE EASTERN BAYS COULD
BE CANCELED AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET AS SEAS WILL BE
SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH A LINGERING SWELL IN SPITE OF LOWERING
WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-340-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ335-338-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC
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