827
FXUS61 KOKX 291443
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED FOR NYC, NE NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY. (SEE MARINE SECTION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ORIENTED N-S CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PIVOT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGHING
IN PLACE AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH. KOKX AND MRMS RADAR
DATA HIGHLIGHT THE SURFACE LOW SPINNING ABOUT 60 MILES SSE OF
JFK.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEARBY AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD, THE
FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. RAINFALL RATES HERE COULD STILL
APPROACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. ONCE THIS BAND LIFTS
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MID MORNING, THE THREAT FOR WIDER SCALE
HYDRO ISSUES LESSENS, THOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATER
TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP AND PIVOT IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FLOOD WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR NYC,
NE NJ, AND THE LOHUD VALLEY, AND CONTINUED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 2 PM FOR S CT AND LI. ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ AND THE LOHUD VALLEY IS AS HIGH AS 3
TO 5 INCHES AND IT WON'T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME TO CAUSE ISSUE. FLASHIER CREEKS AND
STREAMS, AS WELL AS SMALLER RIVERS LIKE THE SADDLE, COULD ALSO
EXCEED THEIR BANKS.
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT AS THE TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD THROUGH
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL INSTIGATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, THOUGH THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE SLIDES EAST FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND PWATS FALL
FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TOWARD AN INCH AND HALF, WHICH SHOULD
LOWER MAX RAINFALL RATES.
TROUGHING WEAKENS AND LOW PRESSURE FINALLY EXITS BY FRIDAY,
WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST HELPING USHER
IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING ONCE AGAIN INTO
THE 80S IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY ELEVATED FROM THIS MORNING'S FULL
MOON. WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE TIDAL PILING, BUT CAN'T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL QUEENS AND NASSAU
FROM TOUCHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING
THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A STATEMENT ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY MVFR THIS MORNING, IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWERING BACK DOWN TO MVFR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF LOWERING TO IFR CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY FOR KBDR AND KGON. MOST OF THE SHOWER/RAIN ACTIVITY
IS FALLING ACROSS THE CT TERMINALS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ARE A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEARBY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. IN FACT, IT MAY TAKE UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
LOW TO PASS TO THE EAST OF KGON. KGON MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS UP TO
20 KT WITH THE GRADIENT REMAINING A BIT TIGHTER DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE TIME, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. KGON IS
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY E/SE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR WIND DIRECTION.
AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES,
ESPECIALLY FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S/SE WINDS GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT CONTINUE EARLY TODAY, SUBSIDING
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
WINDS TURN W/NW. OCEAN SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES. ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 20 KT TO START THE DAY ALONG WITH 4
TO 5 FT SWELLS AT 6 SEC PERIODS DRIVE THIS THREAT.
THE RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES ON THURSDAY AS
SWELLS BEGIN TO LOWER AND WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-177-
179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-340-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR
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