585
FXUS61 KOKX 291857
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
257 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH EXPIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION (SOUTHERN CT
AND LONG ISLAND). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AS WELL
AS THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MORICHES INLET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL FLOODING RISK HAS LOWERED.
2) THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY. (SEE MARINE SECTION)
3) LOW CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FLOODING THREAT LOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS OVERALL AS WELL WITH RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, ALLOWING FOR LESS
ORGANIZATION AND GROWTH OF CONVECTION.
DRIER AIR WILL BECOME MORE ENTRAINED INTO THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LESS MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWER PWATS THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL, WITH LESS
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
BOTH TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVELY COLDEST PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL POOL MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH RECENT FULL MOON, ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE HIGH. SURGE
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE COASTAL AREAS
SUCH AS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS.
HOWEVER, WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT, THIS WILL LOWER TOTAL WATER LEVELS. FEEL CHANCES ARE
LOW FOR ANY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY STATEMENT ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN EITHER MVFR OR VFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS LOWER
BACK DOWN TO MVFR OR LOWER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS REACHING IFR OR LOWER, ESPECIALLY AT SOME OF THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TIMING ANY SHOWERS AT ANY INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL REMAINS
RATHER DIFFICULT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEARBY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE
TERMINALS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST. KISP AND KBDR ARE OUT OF
THE S/SW AND KGON IS MAINLY E/SE. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE N AS THE LOW SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD FOR WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT THE NYC
TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR WIND DIRECTION.
AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE LOWERING THIS AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE SOME
RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS ON THE OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET WHICH
STILL HAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO GET EXTENDED INTO MORE OF TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED.
THESE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY NEXT WEEK, SCA CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
PROBABLE ON THE OCEAN WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON
NON-OCEAN WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONSHORE SWELL OF 4 TO 5 FT
OF 6 TO 7 SEC PERIOD ARE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THE RIP
CURRENT ASSESSMENT. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TO
RIP CURRENT FORMATION AS THEY LOSE WIND STRENGTH AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY IN DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS BECOME MORE NW TO EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
HELP LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES THURSDAY WITH
LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM
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