126
FXUS61 KOKX 300043
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
843 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL FLOODING RISK HAS LOWERED.
2) THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY. (SEE MARINE SECTION)
3) LOW CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FLOODING THREAT LOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BECOME
MORE ENTRAINED INTO THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND LESS MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER
PWATS THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERALL, WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LESS BOTH TEMPORALLY
AND SPATIALLY.
MAIN FEATURES WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVELY COLDEST PART OF THE UPPER
LEVEL POOL MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES
TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH RECENT FULL MOON, ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE HIGH. SURGE
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT DURING HIGH TIDE FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE COASTAL AREAS
SUCH AS THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS.
HOWEVER, WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT, THIS WILL LOWER TOTAL WATER LEVELS. FEEL CHANCES ARE
LOW FOR ANY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
ANY STATEMENT ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGON, WHERE
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE, CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND
IN SOME CASES BRIEFLY IFR. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL
OCCUR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
WIND DIRECTION CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR CHALLENGE DUE TO AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT, VARYING QUITE A BIT IN
DIRECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z TO AROUND 10 KT
WITH G15-20KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS. AMENDMENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR WIND DIRECTION.
AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS UP FOR RESIDUAL 5 FT SEAS EAST MORICHES INLET OUT
20 NM. OTHERWISE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY NEXT WEEK, SCA CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE PROBABLE ON THE OCEAN WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING
ON NON-OCEAN WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS...
WINDS BECOME MORE NW TO EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY THURSDAY. WINDS
LIGHTEN FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECTING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES WITH
LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM
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