360
FXUS61 KOKX 301728
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
2) AFTER DRIER WEATHER TO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS
TURN UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
WEAK FORCING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE
SOME EMBEDDED SMALLER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT, THERE COULD BE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AS A RESULT. INSTABILITY STILL
GENERATES BUT WILL BE WEAK. TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL
VALUES WITH AN OVERALL GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE DRY REPRIEVE IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, INSTIGATING LOW PRESSURE THAT
DRIVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE STREAMS IN WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY, AND PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WPC OFFERS A MARGINAL RISK INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY SUNDAY, AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS, WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF
IFR, ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A
TEMPO. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME WIND GUSTS TO
20KT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 10KT, THEN
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 5KT OR LESS AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR
KGON.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, MOVING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY. AN OFFSHORE N WIND, WITH SSE SWELLS 3 TO 4 FT
AT AN 8 SEC PERIOD DRIVE THIS RISK.
THE RISK REMAINS MODERATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SPEEDS LIGHTEN AND SWELLS BEGIN TO
LOWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM
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