723
FXUS61 KOKX 302358
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LESS RAIN AND MORE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
2) RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. THIS MAY LINGER INTO MIDWEEK. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH WEAK FORCING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. VERTICAL FORCING WILL DECREASE WITH MORE
SUBSIDENCE COMING INTO PLACE ON FRIDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS,
VERY WEAK WINDS AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES TO BE MINIMAL.
THE TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT WHERE THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT,
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AS A RESULT.
INSTABILITY STILL GENERATES BUT WILL BE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH AN OVERALL
GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY. WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
RETURNS TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. MORE SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE AROUND THE SAME
VALUES AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT WARMER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPERATURES
INCREASE RELATIVELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO MIDWEEK AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT COULD LINGER NEARBY
WITH THE GFS.
WITH THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PWATS INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPS AND THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, ALONG
WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MAY MOVE THROUGH FROM 00Z-02Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE METRO
TERMINALS.
SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED THROUGH KJFK, KISP, AND
KGON, WITH A S FLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 02Z. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE W DIRECTION. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND VERY WELL MAY
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE METRO TERMINALS AS WELL AS THE
OUTLYING ONES. A LIGHT NW FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR
KGON.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY. AN OFFSHORE N WIND, WITH SSE SWELLS 3 TO 4 FT AT AN 8 SEC
PERIOD DRIVE THIS RISK.
THE RISK REMAINS MODERATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS TURN
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS LIGHTEN AND
SWELLS BEGIN TO LOWER.
ON SATURDAY, AN INITIAL LIGHT WIND PICKS UP OUT OF THE S INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10-15KT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE S SWELL WITH SURF
HEIGHTS AT AROUND 3 FEET. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGHER
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM
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