428
FXUS61 KOKX 310519
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
119 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.
2) RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. THIS MAY LINGER INTO MIDWEEK. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS, WEAK WINDS AND
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALLOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO BE
MINIMAL. MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE THIS ARE ACROSS COASTAL CT
AND EASTERN LI, BUT POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN. VERTICAL FORCING WILL DECREASE WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
COMING INTO PLACE.
THE TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT WHERE THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT,
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AS A
RESULT. INSTABILITY STILL GENERATES BUT WILL BE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH AN OVERALL
GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY
RETURNS TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST WITH
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.
THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. MORE SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY
FLOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM AND
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE AROUND THE SAME
VALUES AS THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT WARMER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MIN TEMPERATURES
INCREASE RELATIVELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO MIDWEEK AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT COULD LINGER NEARBY
WITH THE GFS.
WITH THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PWATS INCREASE BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPS AND THERE COULD BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CELLS WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR GON/ISP/BDR BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE METRO
TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT A POSSIBLE -RA ACROSS GON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BCMG W/NW FRIDAY MORNING. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR
KGON.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE MORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AS WELL WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY. AN OFFSHORE N WIND, WITH SSE SWELLS 3 TO 4 FT AT AN 8 SEC
PERIOD DRIVE THIS RISK.
THE RISK REMAINS MODERATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS TURN
MORE ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS LIGHTEN AND
SWELLS BEGIN TO LOWER.
ON SATURDAY, AN INITIAL LIGHT WIND PICKS UP OUT OF THE S INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10-15KT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE S SWELL WITH SURF
HEIGHTS AT AROUND 3 FEET. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGHER
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DR
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