371
FXUS61 KOKX 310853
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
453 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MOISTURE LADEN GROUNDS AND WEAK WINDS. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO
SEE THIS ARE AROUND THE RIVER VALLEYS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN LI.
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA WITH RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS,
BUT WITH A FAIRLY MUGGY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE (DEW PTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S), HEAT INDICES COULD POP INTO THE UPPER 80S. A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE EXITING TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND
MAINTAINS THE MUGGINESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME AND
WPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NYC ON
NORTH AND WEST, AND A MARGINAL ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. WITH A
WARM, MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS,
THOUGH GLOBAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING ON A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.
VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR GON/ISP/BDR BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE METRO
TERMINALS. CAN'T RULE OUT A POSSIBLE -RA ACROSS GON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAF.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT BCMG W/NW FRIDAY MORNING. SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NEAR
KGON.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASING S FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 5-7 FT BY MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON NON OCEAN WATERS AS WELL WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LOWER BY TUESDAY, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN NEAR 5 FT.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY
UNDER 10 MPH, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY. SSE SWELLS 3
TO 4 FT AT AN 8 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE PERIOD DRIVE THE MODERATE
RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DR
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