096
FXUS61 KOKX 311727
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS
PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA WITH RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS,
BUT WITH A FAIRLY MUGGY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE (DEW PTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S), HEAT INDICES COULD POP INTO THE UPPER 80S. A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE EXITING TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CT.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND
MAINTAINS THE MUGGINESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTS NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME AND
WPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM NYC ON
NORTH AND WEST, AND A MARGINAL ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. WITH A
WARM, MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WILL NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EXITS,
THOUGH GLOBAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONVERGING ON A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
A SLOWER EXIT OF THE SYSTEM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR. CAN'T RULE OUT A POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KGON AND KSWF. IN
ADDITION, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE
A TEMPO FOR SOME LOWER VSBYS AT KGON, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SEA
BREEZES HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT. EXPECT THE SEABREEZE TO REACH KLGA AROUND 20Z
OR 21Z. WINDS FALL BACK BELOW 5KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY 5- 10KT FROM THE SOUTH.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TIMING OF ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
INCREASING S FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TOWARD 5-7 FT BY MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON NON OCEAN WATERS AS WELL WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS LOWER BY TUESDAY, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN NEAR 5 FT.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY
UNDER 10 MPH, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH ON SATURDAY. SSE SWELLS 3
TO 4 FT AT AN 8 SEC PERIOD THROUGH THE PERIOD DRIVE THE MODERATE
RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR
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