765
FXUS61 KOKX 010545
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AIRMASS BECOMES WARMER AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT TRENDING HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
2) MORE RAIN POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EARLY
IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALOFT, A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS. WHOLE AREA IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS, WITH UPPER 80S
FOR PARTS OF NYC AND NORTHEAST NJ AS WELL AS PARTS OF LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, MOSTLY MID 60S TO LOWER
70S.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD BE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE POSSIBLE
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE
SURFACE AND DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH THE INCREASE IN DEPTH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF RAIN START TO INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
PWATS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST MODELS REACH UP TO NEAR 2.2 TO
2.4 INCHES. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL,
WHICH WOULD EASILY RESULT IN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE PARALLEL
FLOW FROM LOWER TO UPPER LEVELS INCREASES THE TRAINING OF
CONVECTION, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE ACROSS THE
SAME AREA.
THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
RANGES FROM NEAR A HALF INCH TO AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EXCEEDING
2 INCHES. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
BUT REFINED FORECASTS ARE EXPECTED TO NARROW DOWN WITH POSSIBLE
SHIFTS OF THIS RAINFALL RANGE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
IN ADDITION, WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS, THERE IS FORECAST SOME BULK SHEAR 30-40 KT 0-6 KM AGL,
SO THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL FOR
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WET
MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
RAIN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK BUT MORE
MODELS ARE INDICATING STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WETTER TREND TO THE FORECAST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS SOME MODEL INDICATION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
POSSIBLY EXTENDING LATER INTO THE WEEK ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER PWATS. HOWEVER, THE LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEAN DOES INDICATE A DECREASE IN THE
PWATS FOR MIDWEEK COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. ALOFT, THE DEEP TROUGH
SPLITS WITH NORTHERN TROUGH SHIFTING FARTHER NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA INTO MIDWEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR KGON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AT
KGON.
WINDS WILL BE EITHER LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
THEN VEER TO THE S/SSE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM. S/SE
WINDS G15-20KT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS
G20KT MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS ON THE
WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND FIRE ISLAND INLET NY WHERE WIND
GUSTS REACH 25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING.
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER
CHANCES OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLY FOR SOME NON-OCEAN MARINE ZONES ALSO.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES FOR SATURDAY WITH THE
SWELL WEAKENING. AN UPGRADE TO A HIGH RISK FOR SATURDAY CAN NOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/JT
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