541
FXUS61 KOKX 010702
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
302 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
2) MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
INCREASING HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
3) THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED S/SE SWELLS AROUND 3FT 8S AND SOUTH
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15KT, A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. THE SWELL DIRECTION IS
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE, MAXIMIZING WAVES HEIGHTS
IN THE SURF ZONES AT 3 TO 4 FT.
FOR SUNDAY, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MORE LIKELY WITH
SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD DIMINISHING SOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND, AS
THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT SLIDES EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH COLD POOL
ALOFT MAY SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES DO SHOW SOME AVAILABLE MUCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE
AFTER 18Z, PER THE HRRR, WITH WEAKENING CIN. OTHER CAMS
MAINTAIN A WARM LAYER ALOFT/CAP, AND DO NOT DEVELOP ANY ACTIVITY
BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z. HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR FOR THIS, BUT AGAIN CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
ACTIVITY IS ISOLATED AT BEST, COVERAGE- WISE. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD WANE BY EVENING.
GIVEN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS TO NOTICEABLY START INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS, IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE BOARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY EJECTS OUT INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING, SHEARING AS IT DOES SO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A
TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENSEMBLE PWATS APPROACH OR
EXCEED 2.0" BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH IS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND LOW APPROACH, LIFT BECOMES BETTER AND RAIN WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDER BECOMES POTENTIALLY HEAVIER MONDAY MORNING. ANY CONVECTION
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN AS WELL, INCREASING THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THREAT, WITH LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALIGNED.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, AND THUS THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING LOOKS TO
OCCUR MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT LOOK
TO BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE AREA-WIDE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF >2" ARE IN THE 10-30% RANGE, AND HAVE INCREASED
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. WHILE WE ARE NOT QUITE IN THE WINDOW
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, WHICH MAY HELP TO HIGHLIGHT THE
AXES OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, THE WPC URBAN RAINFALL RATE DASHBOARD
IS ALREADY ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF >1" PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES FOR NYC EARLY MONDAY FROM THIS EVENT. THESE NUMBERS WILL BE
REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THIS SETUP,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND SPOTS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. WPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH INCLUDE
NORTHEASTERN NJ, NYC, MUCH OF CT, WESTERN LONG ISLAND, AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY FOR MONDAY.
RAIN TAPERS LATE MONDAY BUT CONTINUES AGAIN TUESDAY. IT WILL NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD INTO MIDWEEK, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STILL
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR KGON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AT
KGON.
WINDS WILL BE EITHER LIGHT SW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
THEN VEER TO THE S/SSE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN
LOW CLOUDS/FOG.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM. S/SE
WINDS G15-20KT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS
G20KT MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE LIKELY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THERE MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KT FROM
SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET.
MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES
OF SCA CONDITIONS STARTING ON MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DBR
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