593
FXUS61 KOKX 011839
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
239 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEE MARINE
SECTION FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS
EVENING.
2) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
3) UNSETTLED AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, WITH CONTINUED S/SE SWELLS AROUND 3FT 8S AND SOUTH WINDS THE
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTLINE, MAXIMIZING WAVES
HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONES AT 3 TO 4 FT.
FOR SUNDAY, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MORE LIKELY WITH SWELL
HEIGHT AND PERIOD DIMINISHING SOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NWP AND AI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY MONDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS LIKE INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT), PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT), WARM CLOUD
LAYER TO AROUND 14K FT, AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ONLY UP TO AROUND 20-25
KT ARE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
IMPACTS BEING A CONCERN. PWATS PEAK MONDAY MORNING AROUND 2.25
INCHES WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALSO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST IS ANOTHER INGREDIENT ADDING TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE FRONT END DURING SUNDAY EVENING
/ NIGHT. PRECISE TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE IN THESE INCREASE, THEN A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA AGAIN DURING MID WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR BEGINS TO BECOME
POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHRA. LOW CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR KGON.
ANY REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME GENERALLY S THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE. S/SSE WIND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON 20-25KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF A LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM WITH
MVFR. S/SE WINDS G15-20KT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS
G20KT MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SOUTH WIND PICKS UP AND SEAS BUILD. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 6 7 FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTERWARDS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH OCEAN SEAS
SUBSIDING CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ332-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE
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