481
FXUS61 KOKX 020350
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1150 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY FOR THE
OCEAN BEACHES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FOR MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL HIGH SURF AS WELL.
2) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
3) UNSETTLED AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE SWELLS REMAIN NEAR 3 FT SUNDAY BUT THEIR PERIOD DECREASES
SLIGHTLY TO 7 SECONDS. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST
IN A GENERAL RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THE RESULTING RIP CURRENT RISK
IS MODERATE FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES BUT THE RIP CURRENT RISK COULD
OCCASIONALLY BE HIGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IF WINDS END
UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
HELPING BUILD WAVES. OCEAN SEAS AND SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD
TO NEAR 8 FT MONDAY WITH AROUND 15-20 KTS OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS. THIS WILL EASILY RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
IF THE WAVE FORECAST REMAINS NEAR 8 FT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS,
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NWP AND AI GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING SOME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RISK OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY MONDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS LIKE INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT), PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT), WARM CLOUD
LAYER TO AROUND 14K FT, AND MID-LEVEL WINDS ONLY UP TO AROUND 20-25
KT ARE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
IMPACTS BEING A CONCERN. PWATS PEAK MONDAY MORNING AROUND 2.25
INCHES WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALSO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST IS ANOTHER INGREDIENT ADDING TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. WPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
MONDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ON THE FRONT END DURING SUNDAY EVENING
/ NIGHT. PRECISE TIMING OF THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND WHERE
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL OCCUR REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. IF CONFIDENCE IN THESE INCREASE, THEN A FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY TO PUSH BACK
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE AREA AGAIN DURING MID WEEK. THIS WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ANY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD
LIKELY TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT STARTS
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED FOR SOME TERMINALS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT RIGHT NOW IS AT
KGON. THEN, MAINLY VFR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR BEGINS TO
BECOME POSSIBLE FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY WITH
PERHAPS ISOLATED -SHRA. MVFR THEN LIKELY STARTING LATE SUNDAY
EVENING.
S/SSE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT JUST UNDER 10 KT. S/SSE THEN
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25KT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM, MAINLY FOR KJFK AND KLGA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THIS
TIME.
AMD MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR START TIME OF
MVFR/-SHRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER IN -SHRA BECOMING IFR IN SHRA AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS
G20KT MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SOUTH WIND PICKS UP AND SEAS BUILD. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 6 7 FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTERWARDS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH OCEAN SEAS
SUBSIDING CLOSER TO 3 TO 4 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ332-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/JM/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE
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