950
FXUS61 KOKX 031152
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NYC ADDED TO FLOOD WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NYC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) HIGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE, AS IS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST MESOANALYSIS, SUPPORT PW VALUES FALLING
JUST SHORT OF 2.5". THIS WILL NOT BE TOO FAR OFF FROM THE ALL-
TIME HIGH OF 2.62" AUGUST 19, 1955.
00Z HREF AND WPC URBAN RAIN RATE DASHBOARD (URRD) SHOW THE PEAK
RAINFALL WINDOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BOTH SHOW ABOUT A 30 PERCENT MEMBERSHIP OF HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES OF 1"+. ONCE YOU GO HIGHER THAN THAT, THE
PROBABILITIES FALL OFF TO ALMOST 0. THAT BEING SAID, THE
COMBINATION OF A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC LIFT, POINTS TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING. AS SUCH,
NYC WAS ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NE NJ. ELSEWHERE, 1-HOUR
FFG IS NEARLY 2 INCHES, SO HAVE HELD OFF. THERE COULD STILL BE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA. WPC
STILL HAS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SW WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SPC ALSO HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A 5% FOR THE WIND THREAT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 6C (WEAK), BUT THERE IS MODERATE CAPE AND
DECENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOMETHING ISOLATED.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADES, SENDING THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE HAVE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELLS OF 8-11 FT 9S TODAY WHICH SUPPORTS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF
ZONE. SURF WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 FT, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
SUFFOLK COUNTY OCEAN BEACHES.
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUFFOLK
OCEAN BEACHES TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES. FOR TUESDAY, THE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING TO NEAR 5-10 KT FROM NORTHERLY IN THE MORNING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OCEAN SOUTHERLY SWELLS DECREASE
TUESDAY TO NEAR 4 FT WITH NEAR 7 SECOND PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADES, SENDING THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL CLOSE
IN ON 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR COND EXPECTED TODAY. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY MAY BE MORE SPARSE THAN FCST NORTH/WEST OF THE NYC
METROS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
S WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SHOULD SHIFT
NW THEN N AFTER COLD FROPA, WITH FLIGHT CAT ALSO QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER FROPA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CAT AND TSTM CHANCES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CAT AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS. S WINDS 15-20KT ON THU.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME
EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS. CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH OF THE WINDS ALOFT GET DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO
THE SW AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 5 TO 7 FT. SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THEREAFTER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...DW
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