426
FXUS61 KOKX 031727
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE NEAR TERM
KEY MESSAGES
1) NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT,
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THIS IS PRESENTING MORE OF AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT THRU THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NYC THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
2) HIGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM
INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW). 12Z OKX
SOUNDING OF 2.5" PWAT WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE ALL- TIME
HIGH OF 2.62" AUGUST 19, 1955.
BEST LLJ/THETA-E AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, TAKING PRIMARY HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM AXIS EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT THOUGH MID
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL NARROW BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT, WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL THIS IS PRESENTING MORE OF AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WIND THREAT THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND NYC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH GRADUAL DRYING DURING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BEGINS TO VEER TO THE SW,
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE THREAT ENDS FROM W TO E LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASSES
THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADES, SENDING THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BOTH WAVEWATCH AND NWPS GUIDANCE HAVE LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELLS OF 8-11 FT 9S TODAY WHICH SUPPORTS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IN THE SURF
ZONE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURF WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 FT,
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SUFFOLK COUNTY OCEAN BEACHES.
A BORDERLINE MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY WITH RESIDUAL 4-5@7FT SE SWELL. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
HIGH RISK AND EXTENSION OF RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR TUESDAY ,
WITH WORSE CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING.
MODERATE RIP RISK LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS SSE SWELLS CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADES, SENDING THE
DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL CLOSE
IN ON 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MOSTLY MVFR COND EXPECTED, WITH POCKETS OF IFR
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WITH TSTMS MAY BE MORE SPARSE THAN FCST NORTH/WEST
OF THE NYC METROS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND FOR CITY
TERMINALS SHOULD SHIFT NW, THEN N AFTER COLD FROPA. FLIGHT CATS ALSO
QUICKLY IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER FROPA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATS AND TSTMS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CAT AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS. S WINDS 15-20KT ON THU.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME
EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS SUBSIDE BELOW LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT, BUT SCA FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS THU DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE MORNING FOR EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDWEEK
UNDER WEAK PRESSURE REGIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...NV/DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW
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