298
FXUS61 KOKX 180628
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTGOING
TIDE.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TODAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ONCE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
GENERATE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE
TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT PLACED OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. A VERY LARGE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE LATEST NBM QPF
PERCENTILES. LOOKING AT 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR MULTIPLE 24
HOUR PERIODS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS
COMPLETELY DRY EACH PERIOD WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAXES OUT
WITH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SUNDAY WITH 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WETTER SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IN TURN A FLOODING THREAT, BUT
THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION
WITH WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS
EAST OF NYC, WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NYC TERMINALS AND
POINTS WEST. EXPECT SOME OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS TO PUSH
WESTWARD, HOWEVER WHAT IS UNKNOWN IS HOW FAR WEST THEY GET AND
HOW LONG IT LASTS. CONDITIONS COULD FALL TO LIFR TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO WITH
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES, MAINLY EAST OF NYC TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR
RETURNING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT.
THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER FOR TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ON
AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST
TERMINALS GETTING MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS EXCEPT FOR KHPN AND KSWF
WHERE MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORY FORECAST. TIMING WITH MVFR AND
IFR COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE TODAY COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SHOWER WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY, A LINGERING 3 FT 7S
SWELL WILL CONTINUE, DIRECTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. STICKING
WITH THE MODERATE RISK, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF A HIGH
RISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTGOING
TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVED SWELL AT AREA BUOYS. A
HIGHER WAVE HEIGHT OR PERIOD THAN FORECAST MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE
TO A HIGH RISK. A LOW RISK IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAKENING SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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