556
FXUS61 KOKX 181428
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG AND INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO ONGOING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTGOING
TIDE.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ONCE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL STALL
OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
GENERATE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. EXACT LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE
TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT PLACED OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. A VERY LARGE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE LATEST NBM QPF
PERCENTILES. LOOKING AT 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR MULTIPLE 24
HOUR PERIODS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS
COMPLETELY DRY EACH PERIOD WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAXES OUT
WITH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SUNDAY WITH 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WETTER SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IN TURN A FLOODING THREAT, BUT
THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION
WITH WEAK TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
MAINLY VFR OR MVFR THIS MORNING, ISOLATED IFR. ANY SUB-VFR
SITES BECOME VFR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE THIS AM, POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST TERMINALS GETTING MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXCEPT FOR KHPN AND KSWF WHERE MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW
IS FORECAST.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CATEGORY TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR FROM THE TAFS.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE TODAY COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
LOW CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY 20Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY, A LINGERING 3 FT 7S
SWELL WILL CONTINUE, DIRECTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. STICKING
WITH THE MODERATE RISK, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF A HIGH
RISK, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTGOING
TIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVED SWELL AT AREA BUOYS. A
HIGHER WAVE HEIGHT OR PERIOD THAN FORECAST MAY RESULT IN AN UPGRADE
TO A HIGH RISK. A LOW RISK IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND A WEAKENING SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JT
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