923
FXUS61 KOKX 190529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
129 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL THEN STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY GENERATE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS FRONT WILL DETERMINE TIMING, LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL.
GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT PLACED OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY. A VERY LARGE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE LATEST NBM QPF
PERCENTILES. LOOKING AT 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES FOR MULTIPLE 24
HOUR PERIODS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS
COMPLETELY DRY EACH PERIOD WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAXES OUT
WITH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 00Z SUNDAY WITH 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WETTER SOLUTION COULD POTENTIALLY
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND IN TURN A FLOODING THREAT, BUT
THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME. WPC HAS A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION TODAY.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
OUTLYING AND COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT / VERY EARLY WED AM
WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMS (MAINLY KGON, KISP,
KHPN). A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING SUB VFR IS MORE OF A
POSSIBILITY FOR KGON.
S-SW WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW COASTAL AND OUTLYING
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N/NW WINDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
BECOMES MORE W/SW BY AFTERNOON, MAINLY 7-10KT. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY 07Z-11Z. NOT
CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS FOR CITY TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES MAINLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RISK DECREASES TO LOW BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING SWELL AND WINDS LARGELY UNDER 10 KT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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