511
FXUS61 KOKX 210600
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT
IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW
ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH ONE BEING
PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY AREAWIDE. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS FOR THE WAVE TO LINGER
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND POTENTIAL
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST A DAYS TIME, HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE NBM
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
SATURDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING TROUGH
ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE AREA SUPPORTS
POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
MAY END UP CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE POTENTIAL
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME, IMPACTS APPEAR
LIMITED, BUT WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. CIPS AND CSU MLP CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, BUT IT
IS STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO VFR TOWARDS THE MORNING PUSH FOR THE CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS.
GUSTS DISSIPATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN PRIMARILY
OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10KT, WITH A FEW OUTLYING TERMINALS DOWN CLOSER
TO 5 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT MAINLY FROM THE NNE RETURN TOWARDS MID
MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARDS 18-20Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT AND MAY BE A FEW
HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHT N-NE WINDS.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARDS EVENING.
SUNDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER AT TIMES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND LIKELY TO
CARRY INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS HOVER NEAR 25 KT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. GUSTS WILL THEN BE 20 KT OR LESS THEREAFTER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN
MODERATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE NE-E, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A SWELL COMPONENT WITH 3 FT SEAS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS
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