521
FXUS61 KOKX 211443
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED FOR 15Z
AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF NYC METRO TODAY.
2) MORE SHOWERS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, MARGINAL FLOOD RISK.
3) MORE OF A DRY WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE NEXT WEEK BUT
STILL INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SLIGHT LOWERING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF LONG
ISLAND AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
STILL HAVE SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, MAKING FOR MORE CLOUDS.
SHOWERS STILL FORECAST EAST OF NYC METRO, ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIMIT THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S RANGE TODAY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE WAVE. LOWS FORECAST TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS REDEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. SHOWERS THEN BECOME LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT BECOME COLDER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING.
LAYER PWATS RISE NEAR 1.75 TO 2 INCHES THIS WEEKEND. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION, WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST SATURDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S AND THEN REBOUND INTO MAINLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS MONDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY
TRACK NORTHWARD HEADING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE QUASI-ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL. THE WINDS BECOME
MORE WESTERLY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TONIGHT.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CITY AND WESTERN
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOWER FOR EASTERN TERMINALS INTO A PORTION
OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT MAINLY FROM THE NNE MOST TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE
TOWARDS 18-20Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONAL CHANGES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY. MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TOWARDS EVENING.
SUNDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER AT TIMES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE WIND GUSTS REMAIN ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE REPORTS OF
OCEAN SEAS OF 5 FT ALSO. THE NY HARBOR EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW
SCA RANGE FOR GUSTS BY 10AM THIS MORNING AND BY 2PM FOR THE REST
OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS PLUS THE OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. THE REST OF THE OCEAN STAYS WITH SCA UNTIL 6PM THIS
EVENING.
THEREAFTER, EXPECTING A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS MODERATE FOR THE
OCEAN BEACHES BOTH FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH BOTH NE AND
SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BUT FROM THE NE TODAY AND
THEN WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER FOR SATURDAY WITH MORE ONSHORE
COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JM
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