725
FXUS61 KOKX 230245
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 03Z TAF AMENDMENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS ON
SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
2) DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HEIGHTS FALL INTO TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION, A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH ALONG AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT, PASSING NEARBY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LI AND COASTAL SE CT, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE REGION DURING
THIS TIME, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.
RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THAN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, AND SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN MUCH DRIER
THAN OTHERS. BUT WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, AS WELL AS
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY MORNING OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS,
CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING IF HEAVIER ACTIVITY PERSISTS
OR TRAINS OVER ONE AREA. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALSO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND SPC HAS
KEPT THE REGION OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK, WITH AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST POSSIBLE.
DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WON'T BE
A WASHOUT, AND QPF OVERALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST, ON THE
ORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THERE COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT PICK UP A
QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD CELLS PROVE MORE
PERSISTENT, BUT THIS WOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE CLOSED LOW TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOW. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST, WITH WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD POOL ALOFT, EXPECT A FAIR
AMOUNT OF STRATCU DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE AUGUST, DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
IT'S TOO EARLY AT THIS TIME TO NARROW DOWN ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT, PASSING THROUGH SOME TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALL TERMINALS LOWER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER OVERALL
THUNDER CHANCES (NOTED WITH PROB30) START AFTER SUNRISE ON
SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER AND
SUBSEQUENT APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH LATER IN THE
DAY.
WINDS MAINLY E TO SE UNDER 10KT THROUGH TONIGHT, SHIFTING
BRIEFLY SE TO S SUNDAY MORNING, THEN SW BY AROUND NOONTIME FOR
MOST TERMINALS. TERMINALS EAST OF NYC SHIFT SW LATER IN THE DAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FOR ALL TERMINALS, IFR MIGHT NOT HAPPEN TONIGHT WITH CONDS
INSTEAD REMAINING MVFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS AROUND 20KT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR AM, CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND -SHRA PM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE REST OF TODAY IS LOW TO
MODERATE. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE SWELL WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/DR
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