847
FXUS61 KOKX 231144
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED IN ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORM ATTRIBUTES INTO TODAY
WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDING BACK
IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
3) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HEIGHTS LOWERING IN MID LEVELS AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HELP KEEP UP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE, LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. CAMS DEPICT CONVECTION DEVELOPING MORE
RAPIDLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE FOCUS
SEEMS TO BE THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS CAMS REALLY START
DEPLETING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL BE A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT SO THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH WITH THE
SHEAR TO MITIGATE FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, MINOR FLOODING
WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOW LYING, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER
NORTHEAST. THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AND THEN WILL START TO RISE MONDAY NIGHT. NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODEL DATASET KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS BUT CAMS INDICATE OTHERWISE
FOR MONDAY WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MANUALLY PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST
BECAUSE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS IS NOT REFLECTING THIS
POTENTIAL IN ITS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. ALOFT, THE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE AND THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS FROM A TROUGH TO QUASI-ZONAL.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THE FORECAST HAS INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY, WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
FORECAST SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL BUT THOSE PROBABILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN
THE SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
FOR MID TO LATE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST
DURING MONDAY.
PRIMARILY MVFR THROUGH 15-16Z. ANY IFR FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST TERMINALS
GIVES WAY TO PREVAILING MVFR LATER THIS MORNING. PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA
HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AT MOST TERMINALS FOR THE LATE MORNING UNTIL
18-19Z. ALL TERMINALS EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME SE TO S BRIEFLY THIS MORNING, THEN SW BY AROUND NOONTIME
FOR MOST TERMINALS. TERMINALS EAST OF NYC SHIFT SW LATER IN THE DAY.
GUSTS UP TO 20KT THIS AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME TERMINALS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR. WSW GUSTS AROUND 20KT ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR AM, CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AND PM -SHRA.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE MARINE ZONES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE MARINE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. THE SWELL WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM
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