222
FXUS61 KOKX 231829
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
EVENING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
3) MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK CAPPING AND
SUFFICIENT MLCAPES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES
ARE LIMITED TO PARTS OF NE NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AREA, AND
INTO SW CT. MIGHT NEED TO EXTEND CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH, BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES DRY FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD POOL ALOFT WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH AFTERNOONS COULD SEE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, AND WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES, THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR
MONDAY. NBM KEPT ALL AREAS DRY BOTH DAYS, BUT HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED, BUT A STRONG
GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM OUR
SW ON THURSDAY AND PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SEVERE WX AND
FLOODING. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE AROUND BASED ON THE
TRACK OF STORM, AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
AN INCREASE OF PWATS. TIME FRAME FOR GREATEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS
WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR KHPN AND KSWF. CAN'T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT AT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. CHANCES
DECREASE AFTER 20Z OR SO. ALL TERMINALS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.
WSW OR SW WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, SPEEDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS UP TO 20
KT ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING,
WITH SIMILAR FLOW EXPECTED ON MONDAY. GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY, AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
A FEW GUSTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH 30 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY PM: VFR. WSW GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. WSW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. LIGHT WSW/SW WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR THU AM, BECOMING SUB VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE MARINE ZONES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE MARINE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. THE SWELL WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE SE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC
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