897
FXUS61 KOKX 232330
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS AND LATEST SURF FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
2) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
3) MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK CAPPING AND
SUFFICIENT MLCAPES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN. STRONG TO LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT. LOOKS LIKE CHANCES
ARE LIMITED TO PARTS OF NE NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AREA, AND
INTO SW CT. MIGHT NEED TO EXTEND CHANCES FOR BOTH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH, BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN ZONES DRY FOR NOW AND MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COLD POOL ALOFT WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH AFTERNOONS COULD SEE INSTABILITY
SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT, AND WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES, THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER FOR
MONDAY. NBM KEPT ALL AREAS DRY BOTH DAYS, BUT HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED, BUT A STRONG
GUST COULD BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM OUR
SW ON THURSDAY AND PASSING NEARBY OR THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING FRIDAY. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR SEVERE WX AND
FLOODING. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER WOULD BE AROUND BASED ON THE
TRACK OF STORM, AND AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
AN INCREASE OF PWATS. TIME FRAME FOR GREATEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS
WOULD BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THEREAFTER.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR KSWF. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING, WITH SIMILAR FLOW EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY,
AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW GUSTS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD APPROACH 30 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. WSW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. LIGHT WSW/SW WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR THU AM, BECOMING SUB VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE MARINE ZONES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE MARINE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC FACING
BEACHES. SE SWELL ON BOTH DAYS IS ANTICIPATED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC
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