445
FXUS61 KOKX 070528
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2) THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LABOR DAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO BLEND IN THE COOLER MAV/MET DATA FOR LOWS
TONIGHT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAT IS TYPICALLY NOT CAPTURED WELL IN THE NBM. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S FOR THE FAR INTERIOR AND LI PINE
BARRENS, TO THE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE. THE NYC METRO WILL LIKELY
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW 60S. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO SHIFT
FURTHER EAST TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 80S IN THE NYC
METRO.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY
SOME CIRRUS SPILLING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ONLY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES
WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
AS COOL, SO LOW SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER, BUT STILL IN THE 50S FOR
MOST WITH READINGS CLOSER TO THE LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL OF MID 80S IN NE
NJ AND NYC METRO ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO RISE
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVELY TILTED,
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH WEAK FORCING DUE TO MUCH OF
THE LIFT PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNALS FOR AN AMPLIFYING JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY,
WHICH COULD DEVELOP A FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS HAS
INCREASED A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL IN THE CHANCE RANGE. EVEN
IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO DEVELOP AND BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY, IT
WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING, LIMITED ANY POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW INTO TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING,
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. LIGHT NW FLOW TO START THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING AFTER 13Z TO AROUND 10 KT, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING
BY 21Z. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. ANY CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING DISSIPATES AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, NO IMPACTS.
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS BACK SW BY LATE DAY.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
MVFR NIGHT.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. SW/W GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OCEAN
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR WAVES ON THE LI SOUND TO BECOME 3-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND OR SWELL UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK LABOR DAY INTO
TUESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DS
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