501
FXUS61 KOKX 081943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
2) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
US DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FOR A SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CITY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTN/EVE. THE PATTERN FAVORS LIMITED FORCING
AND ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED YIELDING A VERY LOW BRN BLW 10. SO
WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM, SEVERE WEATHER STILL
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BOTH SPC AND WPC DO NOT HAVE ANY
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WX/FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRI AND SAT, WITH
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHWRS SAT NGT AND SUN AS WAA DEVELOPS ALOFT.
FOR TEMPS, IT WILL BE WARMEST WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE FROPA,
THEN COOLER BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL THRU THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES TO MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY EVEN HIGH BY EVENING.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH ON THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS TAKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH, A S/SW WIND
WAVE OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6 FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.
THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY.
VFR.
NW TO W WINDS PRIMARILY WITH SOME COASTAL TERMINALS SHIFTING TO
THE SW TO S FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 KT. FOR THIS EVENING THE WINDS DIMINISH,
WITH MANY TERMINALS GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME
MAINLY SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AND S WITH
GUSTS 17-25 KT. MVFR IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA, POSSIBLE TSRA. SW GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS WED NIGHT AS WINDS HIT
CRITERIA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW GUSTS HIT GALE FORCE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN AND BACK BAYS.
WINDS DECREASE ON THU INVOF THE FRONT, BUT SEAS WILL LINGER AOA
5 FT ON THE OCEAN MOST OF THE DAY. THE SCA CONTINUES THERE THRU
THE DAY. A FEW EXTRA HOURS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE
REMAINING WATERS IF WINDS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE BASED ON
THE ULTIMATE TIMING OF THE SYS.
CONDITIONS LIKELY BELOW SCA LEVELS ALL WATERS FRI-SUN.
RIP CURRENTS:
SEE KEY MESSAGE 2.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...
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