895
FXUS61 KOKX 091852
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
252 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION OF
SUNDAY. IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
4) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (AND 4 TO 7 FT SURF) EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AT OCEAN BEACHES. MINOR BEACH FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING THRU THURSDAY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO WEAKENING THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE FRONT LOSING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
INSTABILITY OVERALL APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THERE IS A NOTABLE LLJ OF
40 TO 45 KT DEPICTED ON THE PROGS. THIS TIME AROUND THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY
RAINFALL UNLIKE SOME PAST EVENTS. INSTEAD THIS MAY ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE STRONGER WINDS CAN MIX ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF
30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WHERE
A GUST TO TWO AROUND 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA TOWARDS AND AFTER 06Z. THE CHANCES DIMINISH HEADING
FURTHER EAST INTO THE MORNING. THUS CARRYING CHANCE POPS WEST, AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST. WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT VIA WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH NIGHT TIME MINIMUMS MAINLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE
70S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S.
SOME HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MUCH OF THE DAY BEING DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS TO WHETHER SHOWERS STAY COMPLETELY
SOUTH OF THE AREA, OR IF SHOWERS GET INTO AT THE LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY A STRIPE OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE
THE FRONT GETS THROUGH COMPLETELY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE INTO THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY. NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEW POINT READINGS BACK DOWN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CARRY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CAN APPROACH
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS AND THETA-E VALUES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE (ESAT) VIA THE NAEFS (GFS AND CANADIAN BASED) IS NOT SHOWING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES FOR HUMIDITY, IVT, OR PWATS. THE ECMWF HAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THAN THE NAEFS, BUT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES GENERALLY AT 2 OR LESS WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS. OVERALL IT DOES
APPEAR THAT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME REGARDING HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO PROGRESS THE SYSTEM EAST AND
OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING WEATHER TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KT THIS EVENING, AND 30 KT
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE
SURF BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT INTO THIS EVENING, AND 4 TO 6 FT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TO HIGH FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS
TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT DURING THURSDAY, A RESIDUAL
S/SW WIND SWELL OF 5 TO 8 FT WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 7 FT BREAKERS IN
THE SURF ZONE, HIGHEST FOR EASTERN LI BEACHES.
THE ELEVATED SURF, COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AHEAD OF
THURSDAY'S NEW MOON MAY RESULT IN MINOR OCEAN BEACH FLOODING DURING
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
ALONG THE MAINLAND, WATER LEVELS APPROACH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS
DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS
OF QUEENS AND NASSAU. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT HIGH
TIDE OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MINOR COASTAL BENCHMARKS FROM
BEING MET OR EXCEEDED. THUS, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD
PRODUCTS FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
TROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THOUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR. LOW PROB FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE TODAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF MVFR COND POSSIBLE
MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METROS.
S FLOW SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TO 10-15G20KT. SUSTAINED S WINDS 20KT
LIKELY FOR JFK LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT W AFTER
COLD FROPA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
G30KT POSSIBLE AT KJFK FROM ABOUT 00Z-03Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT AT THE NYC
METROS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ALL WATERS. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE FOR A
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL END ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY
MORNING, AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE OCEAN. THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY SEE 5 FT SEAS LINGER INTO A PORTION OF
THURSDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS RETURN TO EITHER SIDE OF 3 FT ON FRIDAY
WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OCEAN SEAS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 2 FT WITH TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SEAS GETTING CLOSER TO 3 AND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JE/DW
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