491
FXUS61 KOKX 100646
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
MORNING.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION OF
SUNDAY. IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
4) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WITH 4 TO 6 FT SURF EXPECTED TODAY AT OCEAN
BEACHES. MINOR BEACH FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA EARLY TODAY. THERE REMAINS
GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO
WEAKENING THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
FRONT LOSING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY OVERALL APPEARS
TO BE LACKING. THERE IS A NOTABLE LLJ OF 40 TO 45 KT DEPICTED ON THE
PROGS. THIS TIME AROUND THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS OR
FORCING MECHANISM WITH RESPECT TO HEAVY RAINFALL UNLIKE SOME PAST
EVENTS. INSTEAD THIS HAS ENHANCED WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING.
THE ANTICIPATED LINE OF SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT
THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION. THIS IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND S CT. CHANCES DIMINISH
INTO THE MORNING.
SOME HIT AND MISS SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND LATE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MUCH OF THE DAY BEING DRY, ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AS TO WHETHER SHOWERS STAY COMPLETELY
SOUTH OF THE AREA, OR IF SHOWERS GET INTO AT THE LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. CONTINUE TO CARRY A STRIPE OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA, MAINLY FURTHER
SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, THE FRONT GETS THROUGH COMPLETELY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF FRIDAY. NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID WITH DEW POINT READINGS
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CARRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM CAN APPROACH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE REGION DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS AND THETA-E VALUES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE (ESAT) VIA THE NAEFS (GFS AND CANADIAN BASED) IS NOT SHOWING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES FOR HUMIDITY, IVT, OR PWATS. THE ECMWF HAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THAN THE NAEFS, BUT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES GENERALLY AT 2 OR LESS WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
OVERALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS WPC HAS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO PROGRESS
THE SYSTEM EAST AND OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY,
A RESIDUAL S/SW WIND SWELL OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 6 FT
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE, HIGHEST FOR EASTERN LI BEACHES. THE
ELEVATED SURF, COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM TODAY'S
NEW MOON MAY RESULT IN MINOR OCEAN BEACH FLOODING DURING THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE THIS AM, AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TIDE BUT
LOWER WAVES.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL 3 FT
SOUTHERLY WIND SWELLS, AND 1 FT SE SWELL.
ALONG THE MAINLAND, WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH BUT EXPECTED TO FALL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THRU
FRIDAY EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SOUTHERN BAYS, NY/NJ HARBOR, AND W
LIS SHORELINES WITH THE SAT/SUN AM HIGH TIDES IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH, WITH A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
VFR, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR WITH ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
S WINDS BACK TO SW 10-15 KT THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 KT. WINDS BECOME W (LEFT OF 300 TRUE) MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING, GUSTING UP TO 20KT. GUST SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WIND SHIFT TO THE N 5-8 KT LIKELY THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE BTWN 01
AND 04Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR MORNING PUSH. W GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FOR AFT PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT AT THE NYC
METROS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL END ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS BY 8AM THIS
MORNING, AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE OCEAN. THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY SEE 5 FT SEAS LINGER INTO A PORTION OF THIS
EVENING. OCEAN SEAS RETURN TO EITHER SIDE OF 3 FT ON FRIDAY WITH SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OCEAN SEAS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER TO 2 FT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
GETTING CLOSER TO 3 AND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/DW
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