984
FXUS61 KOKX 101224
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
824 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY,
BECOMING PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. .
2) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO A
PORTION OF SUNDAY. IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
3) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WITH 4 TO 6 FT SURF EXPECTED TODAY AT
OCEAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THIS MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS LONG ISLAND ENDING BY 10 AM.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY DUE TO A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR THE COAST COULD
APPROACH 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY THIS EVENING, BUT THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HUMID AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS AND THETA-E VALUES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE (ESAT) VIA THE NAEFS (GFS AND CANADIAN BASED) IS NOT SHOWING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES FOR HUMIDITY, IVT, OR PWATS. THE ECMWF HAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THAN THE NAEFS, BUT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES GENERALLY AT 2 OR LESS WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
OVERALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS WPC HAS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO PROGRESS
THE SYSTEM EAST AND OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY,
A RESIDUAL S/SW WIND SWELL OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 6 FT
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE, HIGHEST FOR EASTERN LI BEACHES. THE
ELEVATED SURF, COMBINED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM TODAY'S
NEW MOON MAY RESULT IN MINOR OCEAN BEACH FLOODING DURING THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE THIS AM, AND PERHAPS THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER TIDE BUT
LOWER WAVES.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL 3 FT
SOUTHERLY WIND SWELLS, AND 1 FT SE SWELL.
ALONG THE MAINLAND, WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH BUT EXPECTED TO FALL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THRU
FRIDAY EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SOUTHERN BAYS, NY/NJ HARBOR, AND W
LIS SHORELINES WITH THE SAT/SUN AM HIGH TIDES IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR WITH ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
SW 10-15 KT THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. WINDS
BECOME W (LEFT OF 300 TRUE) MID TO LATE THIS MORNING, GUSTING
UP TO 20KT. GUST SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT TO
THE N 5-8 KT LIKELY THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE BTWN 01 AND 04Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR MORNING PUSH. W GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FOR AFT PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT AT THE NYC
METROS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL END ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS BY 8AM
THIS MORNING, AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THE
OCEAN. THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY SEE 5 FT SEAS LINGER INTO A
PORTION OF THIS EVENING. OCEAN SEAS RETURN TO EITHER SIDE OF 3
FT ON FRIDAY WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OCEAN SEAS WILL AVERAGE CLOSER
TO 2 FT WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GETTING CLOSER TO 3 AND 4 FT
ON THE OCEAN LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
SEE KEY MESSAGE 4.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BR/DS
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