770
FXUS61 KOKX 101509
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY, BECOMING PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. .
2) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO A
PORTION OF SUNDAY. IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
3) HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WITH 4 TO 6 FT SURF EXPECTED TODAY AT
OCEAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DUE TO A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR THE COAST COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY THIS EVENING, BUT THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HUMID AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS AND THETA-E VALUES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLE (ESAT) VIA THE NAEFS (GFS AND CANADIAN BASED) IS NOT SHOWING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH VALUES FOR HUMIDITY, IVT, OR PWATS. THE ECMWF HAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES THAN THE NAEFS, BUT EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES GENERALLY AT 2 OR LESS WITH THE ECMWF
BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE MOISTURE FIELDS.
OVERALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME
REGARDING HEAVY RAINFALL BUT DOES BEAR WATCHING AS WPC HAS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO PROGRESS
THE SYSTEM EAST AND OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TAKE ON AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY,
A RESIDUAL S/SW WIND SWELL OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PRODUCE 4 TO 6 FT
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE, HIGHEST FOR EASTERN LI BEACHES. MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL 3 FT SOUTHERLY
WIND SWELLS, AND 1 FT SE SWELL.
ALONG THE MAINLAND, WATER LEVELS WILL APPROACH BUT EXPECTED TO FALL
SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THRU
FRIDAY EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE SOUTHERN BAYS, NY/NJ HARBOR, AND W
LIS SHORELINES WITH THE SAT/SUN AM HIGH TIDES IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE
FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR WITH ANY ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING.
SW 10-15 KT THIS MORNING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT. WINDS
BECOME W (LEFT OF 300 TRUE) MID TO LATE THIS MORNING, GUSTING
UP TO 20KT. GUST SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WIND SHIFT TO
THE N 5-8 KT LIKELY THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE BTWN 01 AND 04Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR MORNING PUSH. W GUSTS TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE FOR AFT PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT AT THE NYC
METROS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA LEVELS WEST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET, SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. SCA WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF THERE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND SEAS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BR/DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page