530
FXUS61 KOKX 110315
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
2) A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, BUT IMPACTS, IF ANY, APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY TONIGHT, BUT THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HUMID AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
RIDGING SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO
PASS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LEVELS
LOOK TO INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL OF PWATS RISING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE WARM FRONT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK SUNDAY. IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OVER THE AREA OR
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD ENOUGH SIGNAL AMONG THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC,
ENSEMBLES, AND AI MODELS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY HEAVIER RAIN
WERE TO OCCUR. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTING OVER THE AREA AFTER THE LARGER SCALE FORCING MOVES TO
THE EAST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL.
THE EVENT IS STILL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING, SO SPECIFIC DETAILS ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A LOCALIZED OCCURRENCE OF FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT ARE TWO LIMITING FACTORS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH SUPPORTS A LOCALIZED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS MOVES WELL OFFSHORE EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, BUT STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE TO START
THE WEEK, THEN MAY TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION INITIALLY BUT NORTHERLY
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, MAINLY A NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS LATER DURING FRIDAY.
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WIND DIRECTION, PERTAINING TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TIMING TONIGHT AND SEA BREEZES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING FOR EACH OF THESE WIND TRANSITIONS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS.
FOR FRIDAY, SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE FOR KLGA AND KEWR BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO PUT IN TAFS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT CHANCE OF MVFR LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
LATE. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES AT NIGHT. SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. SE WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT AT TIMES FOR NYC TERMINALS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: SHOWERS EXPECTED EARLY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM EARLY. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES EARLY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT WITH AN EVENTUAL
RETURN TO VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/DS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DS
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