060
FXUS61 KOKX 120542
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY.
2) SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH A
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS WITH 50S AND 60S ELSEWHERE. THERE
IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG ACROSS OUTLYING
COASTAL AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY IN A
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW REGIME AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LIFT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AN INCREASINGLY TROPICAL
AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF 2" TO 2 1/4", WEAKLY UNSTABLE (TALL SKINNY
CAPE) AND DEEPLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVE END UP WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCAL AREA. THERE
IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR AN AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF THE FRONTAL WAVE/WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO THE ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT OF THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A 1-3" SWATH OF RAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. THIS IS NOW ALSO STARTING TO BE NOTED IN
THE SOME OF THE CAM'S. THE NARROW SWATH OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS
SEEMS REASONABLE AS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO 2"/HR
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY TRAINING OF DOWNPOURS/CONVECTION. THIS
PRESENTS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR IT TO INCREASE TO A SCATTERED FLASH THREAT IF WARM
FRONT/SURFACE WAVE EVENTUALLY ALIGN OVER THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF THIS NARROW AREA OF CONCERN, A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
AN AREAWIDE AVERAGED 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AM. OVERALL THE TREND IS INCREASING FOR A WIDESPREAD 1/2 TO 1
1/2" OF RAIN, AND POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 1-3" OF RAIN (WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY ON EXACT LOCATION).
DRYING, BUT SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID, CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE. A
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS
RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVEL.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE FOR MIDWEEK WITH RETURN FLOW
GIVING WAY TO TEMPS MODERATING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND
INCREASE HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT MAY PRESS DOWN ON THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT
OVERALL LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP TILL LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR WITH LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG OUTSIDE OF NYC
TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONLY HAVE KSWF MENTIONED IN
TAFS FOR THE MVFR VISIBILITY FOG EARLY SATURDAY (07-11Z).
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS, WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR.
WINDS ARE GOING TO AROUND 5 KT OR LESS THE REST OF TONIGHT OUT
OF THE N OR LIGHT AND VRB. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY EARLY
SATURDAY AND THEN MOSTLY SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 10 KTS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KT FOR NYC TERMINALS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR TO IFR LATE IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR TO IFR WITH SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, MAINLY
EARLY IN THE DAY. LOCALIZED LIFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. IMPROVING AND DRYING CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
S WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KT AND SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS.
SURF ZONE...THE RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES LOW ON SATURDAY WITH
SEVERAL SETS OF 1-FT S-SE WIND WAVES AND SWELLS. THE RISK LIKELY
INCREASES TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING S-SE WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BC/NV
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BC/GOODMAN
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