169
FXUS61 KOKX 121834
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
234 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
2) DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT EAST.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE NJ, NYC METRO, AND S
WESTCHESTER 2 AM THROUGH 10 AM SUNDAY. A FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO
BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND, COASTAL CT, NORTHERN MIDDLESEX,
AND NORTHERN NEW LONDON 5 AM THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WILL TAP INTO A TROPICAL AIRMASS (CAN
SEE THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE ON GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST) WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.3" BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH THE AREA AND
POTENTIALLY SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE COAST/LONG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO TRACK
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY BEFORE SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAINLY AFTER 2 AM.
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELING IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS STILL A BIT DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE GIVEN
THE SENSITIVITY OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIGNALS ARE STARTING TO POINT TO THIS
BOUNDARY LYING CLOSE TO IF NOT OVER LONG ISLAND/S CT AFTER DAY
BREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ADDED LIFT ALOFT
FROM A PASSING JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER (14-15 KFT) SUPPORTS EFFICIENT WARM RAIN
PROCESSES. INSTABILITY IS WEAK, BUT MAY TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SUNDAY MORNING IF THE WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.
THE 00Z HREF IS SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3 INCHES
IN 3 HOURS AROUND 30 PERCENT OVER URBAN NE NJ, NYC INTO WESTERN
LONG ISLAND FROM 09-12Z SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS 40-60 PERCENT
OVER CENTRAL LI INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CT COAST 12-15Z
SUNDAY, AND AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CT 15Z-18Z SUNDAY.
WE HAVE NOTED IN RECENT FLASH FLOODING EVENTS THAT AT LEAST A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS HAS OFTEN RESULTED IN
FLASH FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE 00Z REFS ALSO
INDICATED A PROBABILITY GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR GREATER THAN
3 INCH AMOUNTS IN SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS, SPECIFICALLY EAST OF
THE NYC METRO. THERE IS ALSO ABOUT A 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF AROUND 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES BASED OF DATA FROM THE WPC URBAN
RAIN RATE DASHBOARD.
PER COLLABORATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT (DAY 1) AND THE EASTERN HALF ON
SUNDAY (DAY 2), MAINLY FOR THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NYC METRO SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z, BUT COULD LINGER CLOSE TO MIDDAY FURTHER EAST ACROSS LONG
ISLAND, SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 1 TO AROUND 2 INCHES. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY 3-5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT, BUT
COULD BE LOCALLY UP TO 3-5".
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS ADDED
SHEAR/HELICITY COULD DEVELOP AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. SPC
CURRENTLY JUST HAS THE REGION IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH A
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
START THE WEEK SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO TREND UP MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY
PRESS DOWN ON THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP TILL LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VFR TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODS OF BRIEF VLIFR. IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED FOR NYC TERMINALS
AFTER 16Z, WITH VFR EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. A FEW HOURS LATER FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT FOR NYC TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL, ESPECIALLY FOR KJFK AND KTEB.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME VARIABLE AND GUSTY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A SHIFT TO THE
NW OR WNW IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WHILE STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, WINDS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST 20 TO 30 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
AMD LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR TIMING OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
HAVE INCREASED THE RISK FOR NYC AND NASSAU BEACHES TODAY TO
MODERATE AS A S/SE FLOW COULD STRENGTHEN TO JUST UNDER 15 KT.
THIS WIND COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING S WIND WAVE WILL LIKELY
CAUSE MORE MODERATE RIP ACTIVITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH LESS
WIND AND A WEAKER SWELL FOR SUFFOLK BEACHES, HAVE LEFT AT LOW
RISK TODAY.
FOR SUNDAY, A MODERATE RISK REMAINS FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN AROUND A
10 KT S FLOW WITH A 3FT 5S SWELL AIMED PERPENDICULAR TO THE
COAST.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ006>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ078>081-177-179.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071>075-176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DS
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