070
FXUS61 KOKX 130837
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
437 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 09Z TAF AMENDMENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING, ENDING OUT EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
2) BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG
THE COAST FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.
3) DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH, WHICH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NE NJ, NYC METRO, AND S WESTCHESTER THROUGH 12 PM AND
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND, AND MUCH OF S. CT AT 6 AM AND
RUNS UNTIL 2 PM.
A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL TAP INTO A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO 2-2.25" THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE
COAST. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST 3AM TO 6AM AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS. THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END AROUND THE NYC METRO/HUDSON RIVER CORRIDOR ON
WEST AROUND MID MORNING, BUT PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHEAST CT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE CAMS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND WHERE THE BANDS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL OCCUR, BUT THE SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS HAS BEEN FAVORING SOMEWHERE OVER LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHEASTERN CT. THE SIGNAL IS A BIT MORE ROBUST FOR THESE
LOCATIONS WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER, DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL ULTIMATELY OCCUR IS OFTEN DIFFICULT UNTIL THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER AREA.
THE 00Z HREF HAS LOWERED THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 3"
IN 3 HOURS OVER THE NYC METRO AND NE NJ TO 10-20 PERCENT.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT, THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 3" IN 3
HOURS RANGES FROM 40-60 PERCENT, WHICH HAS INCREASED A BIT SINCE
THE 12Z 9/12 RUN. IN RECENT YEARS FLASH FLOODING HAS TYPICALLY
CORRESPONDED WITH AT LEAST 30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 3" IN 3 HOURS ON THE HREF.
BASED ON ANALYSIS FROM THE WPC URBAN RAIN RATE DASHBOARD (URRD),
PEAK RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH 1.5-2"/HR IN NE NJ, NYC METRO AND
S WESTCHESTER SOMETIME FROM 11Z-13Z. FOR LONG ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT, PEAK RAINFALL RATES MAY BE 2-2.5"/HR AT
TIMES FROM 12Z- 16Z. THE CHANCE FOR A 3"/HR RATE BASED ON THE
WPC URRD IS VERY LOW AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. PEAK
RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE LOWER FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY,
1-1.5", WITH THE WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT ENDING UP
FURTHER SOUTH.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
NE NJ INTO THE NYC METRO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
2.5-3" POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF S
CT, AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM 1.5-2.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
FROM 3 TO 5" POSSIBLE. FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AMOUNTS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THIS IS WHERE LOCAL SHEAR/HELICITY
ENHANCEMENT CAN OCCUR, BUT THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL BE NEGATING FACTORS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY WILL
BE BRIEF AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL,
SHOULD THEY OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GIVEN HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMING OFF A NEW MOON AND WEAK
SURGE FROM AN APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE, BRIEF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD.
A BLEND OF ETSS, STOFS AND STEVENS 50TH PERCENTILE WAS USED
AGAIN FOR FORECAST WATER LEVELS. THIS CAPTURED YESTERDAY'S HIGH
TIDE PRETTY WELL WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD JUST
TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS. GIVEN LEVELS TODAY ARE MODELED
TO BE A TENTH OR TWO HIGHER, WENT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
USHERING IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY MID 60S IN THE NYC METRO. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION MAY BRING A FEW NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT
FALLS BELOW 60 DEGREES IN NYC, IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THE
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW 60 DEGREES AT CENTRAL PARK SINCE JUNE
16 WHEN THE LOW WAS 57. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. SOME MODERATION IS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT MAY START BREAKING DOWN BY THURSDAY WHICH
COULD SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACT THE TERMINALS
TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR, POSSIBLY LOW LIFR, FROM ABOUT 09Z TO
12Z. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE, ABOUT 1-3
HOURS PRIOR TO THE LOWEST CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR
NYC TERMINALS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS FROM 15Z TO
18Z, BUT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KGON
(WHICH MAY BE CLOSER TO EARLY EVENING (22Z).
THE WIND FORECAST HAS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER 12Z AS
A WARM FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. BEFORE THEN
THOUGH, SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL BACK TO THE E/SE. WINDS
COULD VARY ANYWHERE FROM W/SW TO E/NE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONTAL WAVE AND WARM FRONT LATER TODAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
BECOMING W/SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR TIMING OF HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND CORRESPONDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
LOW CHANCE OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR UP TO 2KFT IN THE MORNING.
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS MAY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AT TIMES. EVEN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TONIGHT: VFR. POTENTIAL LINGERING MVFR AT KGON. 20-25 KT NW
GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DAY INTO EARLY EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS. GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN,
ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR TODAY. S/SW WINDS
EARLY TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BUILD A WIND WAVE TO AROUND
4FT AT 5S OUT OF THE S.
THE RISK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO LOW FOR MONDAY GIVEN AN OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ006>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-177-
179.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ071>075-176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS/JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page