858
FXUS61 KOKX 131620
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1220 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 15Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE, TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
2) BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG
THE COAST FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.
3) DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO LIGHTEN AND
ADVANCE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND S CT.
HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON FOR
WESTERN ZONES, INCLUDING NYC, NORTHEAST NJ, AND THE LOHUD
VALLEY. RATES HAVE COME DOWN UNDER A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR AND
THE RAIN IS BEGINNING TO TAPER HERE. ADDITIONAL FLOODING BEYOND
WHAT IS ALREADY OCCURRING IS NOT EXPECTED. RESIDUAL FLOODING
CONTINUES IN SOME POCKETS OF NJ, AND THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
IS STILL SLOWLY RISING THROUGH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
A WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
PASS OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
TAPPING INTO A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES.
SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODS. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END AROUND THE NYC METRO/HUDSON
RIVER CORRIDOR ON WEST AROUND LATE MORNING, BUT PERSIST ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN AREA, WITH UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THEY WILL BE
BRIEF AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINFALL,
SHOULD THEY OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GIVEN HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMING OFF A NEW MOON AND WEAK
SURGE FROM AN APPROACHING FRONTAL WAVE, BRIEF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD.
A BLEND OF ETSS, STOFS AND STEVENS 50TH PERCENTILE WAS USED
AGAIN FOR FORECAST WATER LEVELS. THIS CAPTURED YESTERDAY'S HIGH
TIDE PRETTY WELL WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD JUST
TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS. GIVEN LEVELS TODAY ARE MODELED
TO BE A TENTH OR TWO HIGHER, WENT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
USHERING IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
FALL THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEASONABLE AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S, POTENTIALLY MID 60S IN THE NYC METRO. COLD/DRY
ADVECTION MAY BRING A FEW NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 MPH. IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND AND 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT
FALLS BELOW 60 DEGREES IN NYC, IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THE
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW 60 DEGREES AT CENTRAL PARK SINCE JUNE
16 WHEN THE LOW WAS 57. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. SOME MODERATION IS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT MAY START BREAKING DOWN BY THURSDAY WHICH
COULD SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACT THE TERMINALS
TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS MORNING WITH VSBYS
LOWERING TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. IFR CIGS.
THUNDER HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM TAFS. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE
STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR NYC
TERMINALS AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z, BUT
WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS SLOWER FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS. VFR
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT KGON (WHICH MAY
BE CLOSER TO EARLY EVENING.
THE WIND FORECAST HAS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AFTER 15Z AS A
WARM FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, KEWR, KTEB,
KLGA, KHPN AND KSWF MAY REMAIN MORE OUT OF THE N. SE ELSEWHERE.
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR THIS TIME IS LOW CONFIDENCE. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND BECOME MORE W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS
AND CORRESPONDING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT. WINDS MAY BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE AT TIMES. EVEN A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DAY INTO EARLY
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS. GUSTS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN,
ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR TODAY. S/SW WINDS
EARLY TODAY AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BUILD A WIND WAVE TO AROUND
4FT AT 5S OUT OF THE S.
THE RISK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO LOW FOR MONDAY GIVEN AN OFFSHORE WIND
COMPONENT AND NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ006>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-177-
179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR/DS
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DS/JT
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