557
FXUS61 KOKX 131923
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
323 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLOODING HAS ENDED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FLOOD THREAT HAS ENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT HAS
ADVANCED NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TODAY, WITH SEVERAL SITES IN COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND NEW HAVEN
HAVING APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED HALF A FOOT, IN LINE WITH MRMS
RADAR ESTIMATES. PART OF THE REASON FOR THIS WAS A NOTABLE AXIS
OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE FRONTAL WAVE MOVED THROUGH; 12Z
RAOB AT OKX RECORDED A PWAT OF 2.26 INCHES, OR TOWARD THE TOP
OF THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY.
THAT SAID, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR ALL
ZONES AS THE THREAT FOR NEW AREAS OF FLOODING HAS ENDED. THE
AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS LARGELY SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS EXITED. RESIDUAL FLOODING
CONTINUES IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS, AND THE SADDLE RIVER AT LODI
REMAINS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE, BUT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AS THE RAIN TAPERS, THE STRATUS DECK IN PLACE QUICKLY TRANSITIONS
INTO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, WHICH
IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON GOES-19 VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THOUGH MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST
BEHIND THE FROPA. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, SHOULD THEY EVEN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN
THROUGH MIDWEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, AND THE RESULTANT CAA USHERS IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS.
H850 TEMPS FALL FROM THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON TO SINGLE
DIGITS ON MONDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING, THIS SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO ONLY TOP THE LOW TO MID 70S UNDER
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. FALLING DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE 50S WILL
SUPPORT A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL TO THE AIR AS WELL. THE CAA
MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME BLUSTERY NW WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
EARLIER IN THE DAY.
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE LI PINE BARRENS AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
FALLING INTO THE 40S INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN ALONG THE
COAST, MOST SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S, INCLUDING THE URBAN
METRO. A SIGN OF THE TIMES, THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST SUB 60
DEGREE TEMPERATURE MEASURED AT CENTRAL PARK SINCE MID JUNE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER
THEN EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
THIS RIDGING MAY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM FRONT HAS ADVANCED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO MONDAY.
NOW THAT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED, VFR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, HOLDING
VFR INTO TOMORROW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS KGON WHICH NOW CARRIES
A TEMPO FROM 4Z-8Z TONIGHT FOR FOG. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG
AT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.
WINDS ARE NOW N/NW UNDER 10 KT. THEY WILL TURN W/SW THROUGH 20-23Z.
TONIGHT, WINDS RETURN MORE W UNTIL 8Z. SOME TERMINALS MAY GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THIS TIME. AT 7-8Z WINDS TURN N/NW AND INCREASE
IN SPEEDS TO 10-12 KT. BY 13Z TOMORROW WINDS ARE 10-15KT G22-25KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE CATEGORIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT TIMES AND AMENDMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR IN SHRA POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH
INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. GUSTS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 25 KT AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET. HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS FROM 10Z
TO 18Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL ON MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE TO LOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL BOTH DAYS, OFFSHORE WINDS ON MONDAY, AND ONLY
LIGHT WINDS ON TUESDAY THAT WILL NOT BE ONSHORE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DR
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