441
FXUS61 KOKX 252022
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION EXCEPT COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL BE
UPDATED SOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
2) COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. [UPDATE STILL TO
COME]
3) HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS AND RAINFALL. OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER ARE
COVERED IN FOLLOWING KEY MESSAGES.
LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200-250 MILES OFF SHORE FROM CAPE HATTERAS IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND DEEPEN OVER TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS UP THE
EAST COAST TOWARDS OUR AREA, WEST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. AN UPPER
LOW WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW, CAUSING THE LOW TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE LOW WILL
RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COAST, POSSIBLY COMING ONSHORE AROUND THE
JERSEY COAST (THOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS). AS IT RETROGRADES, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND OCCLUDE. IT
MAY STALL OR WEAKLY MEANDER OVER OR NEARBY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW GETS PICKED UP BY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL OVERTAKE THE REST OF THE
CWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY STRATIFORM
RAIN WILL THEN EXPAND WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. TIMING OUT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THESE HEAVIER BANDS OF
PRECIP COME ASHORE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST IN EXACT TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER. LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN COULD CONTINUE AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAKENING
NOR'EASTER LINGERS NEARBY OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL
TAPER SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY END
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRY BY
TUESDAY, AS THE NOR'EASTER WILL HAVE DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST.
TOTAL RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE 4-6" ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND NYC AND 1.5-3.5" ELSEWHERE, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS AS YOU
HEAD WEST. THE HIGHEST AXIS OF RAINFALL HAS SHIFT TO TAKE ON A MORE
WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LINGERING NOR'EASTER
TO OUR SOUTH. PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED BANDING OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
STRATIFORM RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME
HIGH TOTALS. BUT KEEP IN MIND, ALL OF THIS IS FALLING OVER A VERY
LONG PERIOD, NOT A SHORT PERIOD.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INCREASE OF QPF ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NYC, WPC
HAS EXPANDED THEIR SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO INCLUDE ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC. MOST FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS ARE MITIGATED BY THE GRADUAL, PROLONGED NATURE OF
THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME TRAINING BANDS THAT COULD
PIVOT INTO THE AREA THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL
RATES OF 0.25"/HR. 0.5"/HR APPEARS MORE UNLIKELY, BUT SEEING
THIS BRIEFLY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE NOR'EASTER, IF IT RETROGRADES WEST TOO
EARLY TOWARDS THE JERSEY SHORE, IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGHEST BANDS OF
QPF COULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, JUST OFF SHORE, INSTEAD OF MAKING IT
ON LAND.
THE NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS. NE/N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RAMP UP INTO THIS EVENING UNDER AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE APPROACHING DEEPENING LOW. PEAK WINDS WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NOR'EASTER
WEAKENS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20-25
MPH WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED SPEEDS AROUND 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS WILL
PEAK AROUND 40-50 MPH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS NEARING 55
MPH. THE LOCALIZED HIGHEST GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ON THE EASTERN END OF LONG ISLAND OR AT IMMEDIATE SOUTH
SHORELINES OF LONG ISLAND. NE WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY, BECOMING N ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E OR ENE
ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE JERSEY SHORE.
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. MANY PLACES MAY NOT ACTUALLY SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH,
BUT THE LONG DURATION RAIN (SATURATING THE SOIL) AND STRONG WINDS
MAY ALLOW FOR A MANY TREES/POWER LINES TO COME DOWN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AT WIND SPEEDS OF 46 MPH OR HIGHER. THIS IS EXACERBATED BY OUR
FULL FOLIAGE GIVEN THE EARLY FALL TIMING OF THIS NOR'EASTER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF
NY HARBOR SHORELINES AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.
WORST OF COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
FULL MOON ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES,
WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH SURGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO MAJOR FLOODING FOR MULTIPLE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED ETSS, STOFS, AND THE STEVENS
NYHOPS CENTRAL (50TH PERCENTILE) FORECASTS.
AREAS OF MOST CONCERN INCLUDE ALL OF LONG ISLAND, THE LOWER
BOROUGHS OF NYC, AND ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
ALONG THE SE CT COAST AND FOR TIDALLY EFFECTED WATERS OF NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, FLOODING WILL BE MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG
OCEAN SHORELINES. WHILE OCEAN SWELLS IN OUTER OCEAN REACH NEAR
13-16 FT, SURF HEIGHT OF NEAR 7-11 FT EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE.
THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION DUE TO SWELL ORIENTATION, WITH
OCCASIONALLY MORE ENE VS MORE ESE SWELL DIRECTION. THE LACK OF
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO SHORELINE REALLY LIMITS THE SURF HEIGHTS
CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
HOWEVER, WITH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
GFSWAVE BY A FEW FEET, FELT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY WITHIN
ADVISORY RANGE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. BEACH FLOODING AND EROSION
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF STRONG N/NE WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP
FROM EAST TO WEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING, AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT, EXCEPT
FOR THE MORE WESTERN TERMINALS (KSWF, KTEB, KEWR) WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP, POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL AFTER
12Z SATURDAY.
N-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING MAINLY 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT AT THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL TERMINALS.
GUSTS 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SAT AM. SOME PEAK GUSTS
TO 45 KT POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS
LIKE KISP AND KGON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SATURDAY NIGHT: FLIGHT CATS MAINLY MVFR THROUGH
THE DAY AND MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL STORM NEARS THE AREA.
N/NE GUSTS 30-40 KT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS/GUSTS MAY
BE UP TO 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN FCST IF THE STORM IS CLOSER TO THE
AREA. LLWS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. N WINDS 15-20KT, G25-30KT.
MONDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. N GUSTS AROUND 20KT IN
THE MORNING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A NOR'EASTER WILL IMPACT WATERS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA THEREAFTER.
STORM WARNINGS TAKE OVER THIS EVENING ON ALL OCEAN WATERS. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE IN PLACE ON ALL NON-OCEAN WATERS. THESE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR GALE LEVEL AND STORM LEVEL WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA-LEVELS ON MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-
176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-380-383-385.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/BR/NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/BR/NV
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