405
FXUS61 KOKX 261747
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
147 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN EARLY SEASON NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG WINDS AND RAINFALL. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
2) WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
3) HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW ABOUT 200 MILES E OF THE VA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY N TODAY, THEN MOVE NW TOWARD THE NJ COAST TONIGHT. AS ITS
WARM SECLUSION BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT
LATE TONIGHT THE SFC LOW SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM THEN
INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND MAY STALL OR WEAKLY MEANDER OVER OR
NEARBY THE AREA TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE LOW WILL
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING AROUND THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH, AND AND THE
SYSTEM CAN GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH.
RAIN BANDS FROM THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO THE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS MAY EVEN DRY OUT FOR A TIME IN SPOTS BETWEEN
THESE BANDS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN AS THE LOW PIVOTS
TOWARD THE NJ COAST THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE THE BEST PUSH OF
ORGANIZED RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING STORM LINGERS NEARBY OR TO THE
SOUTH. RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF AND EVENTUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE 3-4 INCHES
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT, AND 2-3 INCHES FROM NYC NORTH/WEST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF RAIN BANDS AS WE GO
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, AND SOME OF THOSE HEAVIER AMTS
COULD EXPAND NW TO INCLUDE THE NYC METRO AREA. THAT SAID, THIS
WILL BE A LONG DURATION RAINFALL WITH MAX RATES IN HEAVIER BANDS
REMAINING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH PER HOUR, SO DO NOT REALLY SEE A
FLASH FLOOD CONCERN, THOUGH AREAL AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE
LIKELY.
STRONG WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT THE AREA, MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST, AND THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BUT ORANGE, PUTNAM, AND W PASSAIC, FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AS
HIGH AS 30-35 MPH IN COASTAL AREAS AND GUSTS 45-55 MPH. CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME 60 MPH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS OF EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SE CT. LONG DURATION RAIN, AND STRONG WINDS, AND
FULL FOLIAGE MAY ALLOW FOR TREES/POWER LINES TO COME DOWN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
PEAK OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE SATURDAY AM INTO SUNDAY AM
HIGH TIDES WITH GALE TO STORM FORCE NE WINDS. AT THIS POINT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SAT AM HIGH TIDE TO BE THE HIGHEST, BUT
WITH TIDAL PILING, GRADUALLY RISING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS,
AND A POSSIBLE BACKING OF WINDS TO THE NE/E BY SUNDAY, WATER
LEVELS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FALLING TOO MUCH WITH THE SAT PM AND
SUN AM HIGH TIDES.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING COASTAL FLOODING
REMAINS LIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND AND QUEENS THRU THE SUN AM HIGH
TIDE. GREATEST THREAT FOR MAJOR IS FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SW
SUFFOLK, INCLUDING THE NORTH FACING PORTIONS OF THE BARRIER
ISLANDS. WATER LEVELS MAY NOT FALL MUCH IF AT ALL BELOW MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS IN A FEW OF THESE SPOTS EVEN DURING LOW TIDE.
WAVE ACTION WILL EXACERBATE MODERATE SHORELINE IMPACTS ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORELINES.
FOR NYC/NJ HARBOR, COASTAL CT AND WESTCHESTER, AND THE TIDALLY
EFFECTED WATERS OF NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, THE
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS TO GENERALLY MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE THROUGH THESE TIDAL CYCLES.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED 00Z
ETSS, STOFS, AND THE STEVENS NYHOPS CENTRAL (50TH PERCENTILE)
FORECASTS. THE FORECAST CAPTURED THE LATEST HIGH TIDE CYCLE
FAIRLY WELL, BUT CAN ALSO TEND TO RUN HIGH IN A N-NE FLOW
REGIME, SO THERE IS A SAFETY MARGIN BUILT IN THROUGH SUN AM HIGH
TIDES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG
OCEAN SHORELINES. WHILE OCEAN SWELLS IN OUTER OCEAN REACH NEAR
13-16 FT, SURF HEIGHT OF NEAR 7-11 FT EXPECTED CLOSER TO SHORE.
THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION DUE TO SWELL ORIENTATION, WITH
OCCASIONALLY MORE ENE VS MORE ESE SWELL DIRECTION. THE LACK OF
ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO SHORELINE REALLY LIMITS THE SURF HEIGHTS
CLOSER TO THE SHORE.
HOWEVER, WITH CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS RUNNING HIGHER THAN
GFSWAVE BY A FEW FEET, FELT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ALREADY WITHIN
ADVISORY RANGE WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. BEACH FLOODING AND EROSION
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRES WILL APPROACH TNGT, THEN TRACK WWD S OF LI ON SUN. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW POCKETS OF VFR THIS
AFTN WILL DROP TO MVFR AS ADDITIONAL RAIN BANDS MOVE IN. SOLID
MVFR EXPECTED TNGT, WITH IFR AT TIMES. IFR THEN THRU THE DAY ON
SUN WITH CIGS BLW 1000FT.
ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU SUN MRNG.
N-NE WINDS 15-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SUN MRNG. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN
VEER TO THE E THRU THE DAY ON SUN AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
GENERALLY AFT 16Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 KT POSSIBLE THRU ABOUT 15Z SUN. CHANCE OF AN
ISOLD EMBEDDED TSTM ESPECIALLY 08-13Z SUN.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
REST OF SUNDAY: IFR IN -RA/BR. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. WINDS GENERALLY BLW 20KT WITH VRB
DIRECTION THRU THE DAY.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH SW FLOW.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN, AND THERE COULD
EVEN BE SOME OCCASIONAL 50-KT GUSTS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS E
OF ORIENT POINT THIS MORNING. GALE WARNINGS FOR THE NON-OCEAN
WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2 PM SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ON ALL WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
MONDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD LINGER INTO MOST OF DAYTIME
MONDAY ON ALL THE OCEAN WATERS, AND FROM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING OUT EAST.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-
176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355-380-383-
385.
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