372
FXUS61 KOKX 271839
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
239 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE EXPIRED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MINOR URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE, AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING LIKELY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE.
2) COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR INUNDATION
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
3) HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-2
INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND) STILL POSSIBLE.
LATEST HREF PROB OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS AS HIGH AS 50-60%
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE OF 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL SUFFOLK COUNTY LATE TODAY. STILL OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH, AS FLOODING UNLIKELY TO BE CONSIDERABLE AND
MORE LIKELY IN THE MINOR NUISANCE CATEGORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THE THE 00Z NYHOPS 50TH PERCENTILE, ETSS/PETSS 50TH
PERCENTILE, AND STOFS GUIDANCE. SURGE MODELS HAVE OVER-PERFORMED
SO DID NOT CONSIDER THE HIGHER PERCENTILES OF PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE DESPITE WINDS VEERING MORE NE THIS MORNING.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE
TIDE CYCLE AS LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE BACK BAYS OF S NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK COUNTIES, WITH
MODERATE FLOODING ALSO EXPECTED IN SPOTS ALONG PECONIC BAYS, THE
WESTERN SOUND, AND LOWER NY HARBOR AND JAMAICA BAY, MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING IN TIDALLY IMPACTED AREAS OF NE NJ,
AND MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER IN THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.
AS WINDS DIMINISH THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL LESSEN, WITH
WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. SOME SPOTTY MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST
INTO TUE AND WED WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE
DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF TODAY ALONG OCEAN
SHORELINES, WITH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 8-11 FEET POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL BEACH EROSION LIKELY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF ROUTINE SURF ZONE PRODUCTS AND
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THE 2026 SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH RAIN
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR WILL
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MOST. PERIODS OF RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO TONIGHT.
E/NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY FOR JFK/LGA/EWR. WINDS BACK TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS STILL NEAR 20-25KTS.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
CIGS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES WITH ANY
HEAVIER RAIN BRINGING LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES.
LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTM, ESPECIALLY 21-03Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20KT WITH VRB
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH SW FLOW.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ALL WATERS WILL BE COMING DOWN TO SCAS THIS AFTN.
SCA COND THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY COMING DOWN FIRST ON THE PROTECTED WATERS MON AND
THEN ON THE OCEAN MON NGT AS SEAS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009-
010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-
012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.
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