736
FXUS61 KOKX 280046
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
846 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE STORM EXITS LATE MON.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HIGHEST MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY MODERATE INUNDATION POSSIBLE MON MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NORTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND.
3) A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THRU MON AS IT TRACKS
NE AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
TUE.
A SWATCH OF RAIN ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE IN AND
IMPACT NYC AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS THIS EVE. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO TRACK N AGAIN TONIGHT, THIS RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN BANDS IN THESE
LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEMS, BUT WITH A LACK OF STRONG TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION, RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLOOD
THREAT. IN COORDINATION WITH WPC, THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK, WHICH IMPLIES
AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD RISK. IN GENERAL, MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE THREAT.
THE LOW TRACKS THRU THE AREA ON MON, SO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SHOULD SHIFT N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG INVOF THE LOW
IF IT PASSES OVER LAND, BUT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE GRIDS THIS FAR OUT.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW, A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVE AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST AT THE
COASTS. WINDS LIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE
AREA ON MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LI
FROM RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LI AND
NORTH SHORE OF FIRE ISLAND WITH COMBO OF MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AND
SOME WAVE ACTION.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST INTO TUE AND WED
WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME TIME,
INCLUDING THE CPC OUTLOOKS, THAT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEK. THIS TIMING NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSING
IN ON THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF
AGAIN. THE NBM INDICATES 70S TO NEAR 80, BUT TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
NEAR 90, ESPECIALLY THE USUAL HOT SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
MAINLY MVFR OR LOWER THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR WILL
PUSH INTO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING FOR MOST. PERIODS OF RAIN
OF VARYING INTENSITY INTO MONDAY MORNING, FINALLY TAPERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH STILL A FEW GUSTS 20-25KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS BACK TO THE N/NNE OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY N AND NNW BY
LATER MONDAY. GUSTS FINALLY SUBSIDE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES TONIGHT AND MON AM.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR. N/NW WIND UNDER 10 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH SW FLOW.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS THRU MON, AND FOR
THE OCEAN THRU MON EVE. AN OCNL GUST TO GALE FORCE COULD BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON THE SOUND DUE TO TUNNELING EFFECTS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS
AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SW
WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ071-073-
078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ079>081-
179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM
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