778
FXUS61 KOKX 280614
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
214 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING, BUT ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE STORM EXITS LATE MON.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, HIGHEST MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY MODERATE INUNDATION POSSIBLE MON MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NORTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND.
3) A COUPLE OF HOT DAYS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THRU MON AS IT TRACKS
NE AGAIN TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE.
A SWATH OF RAIN ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE IN AND
IMPACT NYC AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS THIS EVE. AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO TRACK N AGAIN TONIGHT, THIS RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REST OF THE AREA THRU THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
PINPOINTING THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN BANDS IN THESE
LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEMS, BUT WITH A LACK OF STRONG TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION, RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD LIMIT THE FLOOD
THREAT. IN COORDINATION WITH WPC, THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A MARGINAL RISK, WHICH IMPLIES
AN ISOLD FLASH FLOOD RISK. IN GENERAL, MINOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS THE THREAT.
THE LOW TRACKS THRU THE AREA ON MON, SO THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SHOULD SHIFT N OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG INVOF THE LOW
IF IT PASSES OVER LAND, BUT TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE GRIDS THIS FAR OUT.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE LOW, A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WINDS
IS POSSIBLE THIS EVE AS THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST AT THE
COASTS. WINDS LIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER THE
AREA ON MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND FROM RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND AND NORTH SHORE OF FIRE ISLAND WITH COMBO OF MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS AND SOME WAVE ACTION.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST INTO TUE AND WED WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME TIME, INCLUDING
THE CPC OUTLOOKS, THAT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THIS TIMING NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSING IN ON THU
AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN.
THE NBM INDICATES 70S TO NEAR 80, BUT TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL HOT SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING, WITH
BANDS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN PIVOTING INTO THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MOST
ELSEWHERE, BUT IS UNCERTAIN TO OCCUR AT KSWF.
STILL SEEING NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NNE AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN N-NNW BY
LATER MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS THRU MON, AND FOR
THE OCEAN THRU MON EVE. AN OCNL GUST TO GALE FORCE COULD BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ON THE SOUND DUE TO TUNNELING EFFECTS.
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING WINDS
AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SW
WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-078>081-176-177-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JM
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