254
FXUS61 KOKX 280736
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, HIGHEST THIS MORNING. LOCALLY
MODERATE INUNDATION POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
3) A WARM UP POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA INTO TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING AWAY BY TUESDAY.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN, IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL CREATE AMPLE LIFT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN BANDS THAT WILL PIVOT ONSHORE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED, AN EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30KT
EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOME SPOTS BUT CONTINUE TO DROP IN
INTENSITY SUCH THAT GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY CEASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY AFTERNOON, THE LOW SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE GREATEST AREA OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. STEADY RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BEFORE EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH MONDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS MAY APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND FROM RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND AND NORTH SHORE OF FIRE ISLAND WITH COMBO OF MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS AND SOME WAVE ACTION. THIS SHOULD LARGELY BE THE
LAST TIDAL CYCLE WITH COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST INTO TUE AND WED WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME TIME, INCLUDING
THE CPC OUTLOOKS, THAT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THIS TIMING NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSING IN ON THU
AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN.
THE NBM INDICATES 70S TO NEAR 80, BUT TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING, WITH
BANDS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN PIVOTING INTO THE
AREA FROM OFFSHORE. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MOST
ELSEWHERE, BUT IS UNCERTAIN TO OCCUR AT KSWF.
STILL SEEING NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NNE AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN N-NNW BY
LATER MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IN THE MORNING FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SW WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU
AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-078>081-176-177-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NYZ178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MW
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