271
FXUS61 KOKX 280856
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
456 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
3) A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING AWAY BY TUESDAY.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN, IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL CREATE AMPLE LIFT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN BANDS THAT WILL PIVOT ONSHORE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED, AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30KT EARLY
THIS MORNING IN SOME SPOTS BUT CONTINUE TO DROP IN INTENSITY
SUCH THAT GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY CEASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY AFTERNOON, THE LOW SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE GREATEST AREA OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. STEADY RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BEFORE EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE,
THOUGH THE FREEPORT GAUGE IN SOUTHERN NASSAU MAY APPROACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIDAL CYCLE WITH
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST INTO TUE AND WED WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME TIME, INCLUDING
THE CPC OUTLOOKS, THAT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THIS TIMING NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSING IN ON THU
AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN.
THE NBM INDICATES 70S TO NEAR 80, BUT TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT EAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TERMINALS SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING, WITH BANDS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN PIVOTING INTO THE AREA FROM
OFFSHORE. MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD TAKE PLACE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MOST ELSEWHERE, BUT IS UNCERTAIN TO OCCUR AT KSWF.
STILL SEEING NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT.
THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NNE AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN N-NNW BY
LATER MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR CIGS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS RETURNING IN THE MORNING FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SW WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU
AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...BG/MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MW
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