095
FXUS61 KOKX 281419
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
3) A WARMUP POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA INTO TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING AWAY BY TUESDAY.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN, IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL CREATE AMPLE LIFT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN BANDS THAT WILL PIVOT ONSHORE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN
WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT EXPECTED, AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30KT EARLY
THIS MORNING IN SOME SPOTS BUT CONTINUE TO DROP IN INTENSITY
SUCH THAT GUSTS SHOULD LARGELY CEASE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BY AFTERNOON, THE LOW SHOULD BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE GREATEST AREA OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST. STEADY RAIN SHOULD
BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BEFORE EVENTUALLY PULLING OUT OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION,
WHILE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH TODAY'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE,
THOUGH THE FREEPORT GAUGE IN SOUTHERN NASSAU MAY APPROACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TIDAL CYCLE WITH
WIDESPREAD COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING MAY LAST INTO TUE AND WED WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON THOSE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING HAS BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME TIME, INCLUDING
THE CPC OUTLOOKS, THAT A QUICK WARMING TREND WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEK. THIS TIMING NOW LOOKS TO BE FOCUSING IN ON THU
AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN.
THE NBM INDICATES 70S TO NEAR 80, BUT TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TERMINALS SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR THIS MORNING, WITH BANDS OF LIGHT
RAIN PIVOTING IN FROM OFFSHORE. MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
SHOULD TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, WITH EXACT
TIMING UNCERTAIN BUT BY 20Z AT THE LATEST. UNCERTAIN WHEN FLIGHT
CAT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS, AND MAY NOT OCCUR
AT ALL DURING THE FCST PERIOD AT KSWF.
STILL HAVE NNE WINDS AT 10-15 KT, SHOULD BECOME N-NNW 10 KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT NW TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, THEN VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, AND FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SW WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU
AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ072-074-075-080-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ079-081.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MW
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