426
FXUS61 KOKX 281901
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
301 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SW LONG ISLAND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NOR'EASTER WEAKENING WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF.
2) WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK ON LI.
3) A WARMUP LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE CENTER OF THE NOR'EASTER WAS ANALYZED ABOUT 65 MILES S OF
MONTAUK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK 1008 MB LOW WILL TRACK NEAR
CAPE COD TONIGHT, AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUE.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS
THE LOW EXITS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL, PARTICULARLY INTO THIS EVE WITH
THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE AS THE BL COOLS, THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN
THE SHELTERED LOCATIONS WHERE THE WINDS GO NEARLY CALM.
MODEL TIMEHEIGHTS KEEP THE STRATUS LOCKED IN THRU AT LEAST TUE
MRNG. THE NBM MAY BE TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN MAY BE A
MORE REALISTIC OUTCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WHILE SURGE GUIDANCE FALLS BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A CONTINUED 2 FT EASTERLY SWELL
COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WATER IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
AND SW SUFFOLK FOR WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH OR TOUCH MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, AND EVEN ACROSS THE SW COAST OF
CT DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS FOR THESE LATER
CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK WARMING
TREND WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN. THE NBM IS TRENDING UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, BUT 16-18C AT H85 COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DRIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METROS, WITH EXACT TIMING
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN, BUT SHOULD BE BY 20-21Z THE LATEST.
UNCERTAIN WHEN FLIGHT CAT WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS, AND MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL DURING THE FCST PERIOD AT KSWF
AND KGON.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME N-NNW 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN LIGHT
NW TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NW-W WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR AT TIMES. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR IN SHRA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SAT AM, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR SATURDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SCA HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL BUT THE CNTRL AND ERN OCEAN
WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR LINGERING 4-6FT SEAS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW
TRACKING AWAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT SW WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU
AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
MODELED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON SAT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page