765
FXUS61 KOKX 290559
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
2) WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK ON LONG ISLAND.
3) A WARMUP IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MODEL TIMEHEIGHTS KEEP STRATUS LOCKED IN THRU AT LEAST TUE
MRNG. THE NBM MAY BE TOO QUICK TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTN MAY BE A
MORE REALISTIC OUTCOME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE SURGE GUIDANCE FALLS BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A CONTINUED 2 FT EASTERLY SWELL COULD
KEEP JUST ENOUGH WATER IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
AND SW SUFFOLK FOR WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH OR TOUCH MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ADDITIONALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR AGAIN TUESDAY
MORNING, AND EVEN ACROSS THE SW COAST OF CT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS FOR THESE LATER CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELING REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK WARMING
TREND WILL IMPACT THE AREA THU AND FRI BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN. THE NBM IS TRENDING UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S, BUT 16-18C AT H85 COMBINED WITH
PROGGED WLY COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90,
ESPECIALLY THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON TUE, BARELY LIFTING ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC
METROS AND TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE. KBDR MAY DRIFT IN/OUT OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A LATE DAY OR
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER.
NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT EXPECTED. LATE DAY SW SEA BREEZE FCST AT
KJFK/KBDR AND MAY ALSO OCCUR AT KGON.
LIGHT N FLOW BACKS WNW OR NW TONIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR COND POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT WITH WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY, AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY INTO SAT.
SW WINDS APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO REACH SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN THU
AND/OR FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
AVIATION...BG
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