358
FXUS61 KOKX 290711
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
311 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK ON LONG ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODELING REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
QUICK WARMING TREND WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS THINGS OFF AGAIN INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. THE NBM IS TRENDING UP WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S, BUT 16-18C AT H85 COMBINED WITH PROGGED WLY
COMPONENT WINDS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90, ESPECIALLY THE
USUAL WARMER SPOTS IN NJ AND NY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FALL THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE SURGE GUIDANCE FALLS BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
INTO TODAY, A CONTINUED 2 FT EASTERLY SWELL COULD KEEP JUST
ENOUGH WATER IN THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND SW
SUFFOLK FOR WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH OR TOUCH MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ACROSS THE
SW COAST OF CT.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.
MVFR CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON TUE, BARELY LIFTING ABOVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC
METROS AND TOWARD EVENING ELSEWHERE. KBDR MAY DRIFT IN/OUT OF
VFR/MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A LATE DAY OR
EARLY EVENING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER.
NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT EXPECTED. LATE DAY SW SEA BREEZE FCST AT
KJFK/KBDR AND MAY ALSO OCCUR AT KGON.
LIGHT N FLOW BACKS WNW OR NW TONIGHT, WHICH THEN PERSISTS
THROUGH TUESDAY. SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
EXACT TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNCERTAIN, BUT APPEARS
LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR COND POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MW
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