893
FXUS61 KOKX 011441
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY COMING UP FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WARM AND REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE
POSSIBLY GRAZES THE AREA. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMUP THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WILL SEND 85H TEMPS OF AROUND 15C INTO THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BE LIMITED TODAY BY AN
ABUNDANCE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, LATEST
CAMS EVEN HINTING AT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR A BRIEF SHOWER THIS
MORNING IN THE WARM ADVECTION, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST INTO THE 70S TODAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY, WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON FRIDAY, PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LATEST CAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NO SURPRISE HERE WITH NOT MUCH INSTABILITY AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, THE NON-CAM MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME QPF ACROSS AREA, GENERALLY A TENTH OR TWO. NAM12 IS VERY
BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR SW CT. THE LATTER IS AN OUTLIER. NBM POPS GENERALLY
IN THE CHANCE (30-50%) CATEGORY, BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS
EASTERN LI. THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE
MAIN LIFT COMING WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. THUS, FOR THE TIME ONLY
EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS YO-YOING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
IS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT BACKING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND HOW CLOSE A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE GETS TO THE
AREA. IT'S STILL A CLOSE CALL WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AT THIS TIME
WITH THE AREA GETTING SCRAPED. 01Z NBM PROB > 0.25" ABOUT 20 TO
40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA (HIGHEST AT THE COAST), BUT EVEN
LOWER FOR THE LREF (GEFS, GEPS, EPS) MEAN.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SPRINKLE
TODAY.
A GENERAL SW FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY BACKING
S AT KJFK. SPEEDS INCREASE TOWARD 10 KT BY THE AFTERNOON, THEN
LIGHTEN BY THE EARLY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIKELY FOR SOME LOCATIONS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ON SOME OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR FRIDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE A SCA. ALSO, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW IT BEING HIGHLY INVERTED
ACROSS THE WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NBM GUSTS
WERE LOWERED TO 110% OF THE SUSTAINED.
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 25
KT FOR A BRIEF TIME, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
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