001
FXUS61 KOKX 020747
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A WARM AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM OCTOBER DAY IS AHEAD BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
H850 TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DEEP-LAYERED
WSW FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
APPROACH OR TOP 80 THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE IN THE
URBAN METRO OF NE NJ. WHILE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THIS
TIME OF YEAR, RECORDS ARE NOT IN JEOPARDY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY AND GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS PRECEDING IT. A FEW OF
THE CAMS ARE MORE BULLISH WITH THE THERMO ENVIRONMENT, OFFERING
AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE AND ELS APPROACHING -30C
LATE TODAY. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SUFFICIENT ENOUGH WARM
NOSE IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WOULD PRECLUDE THIS. OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN FORCING WORKS IN AND ADDED MODERATE SHOWERS AS A NOD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAINFALL. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A QUICK INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN SOME LOCALES SHOULD
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS PAN OUT, BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
LIMITED IN SCOPE. IN GENERAL, QPF REMAINS UNDER A QUARTER INCH
FOR MOST, AND SOME MAY REMAIN DRY.
A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A BIT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AS A JET ADVANCES EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN QUICKLY SCOOTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
AND CONDITIONS DRY OUT WITH NW FLOW ADVECTING IN A DRIER,
COOLER REGIME. SKIES CLEAR IN THE MORNING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
PREVAILS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COOL, N/NE WIND. TEMPERATURES
FALL 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR PEAK TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 70 FOR MOST. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BY SUNDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SAME FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF
THIS WAVE, BUT THE GROWING CONSENSUS IS THAT IT PASSES CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
QPF WHERE IT OCCURS IS LIKELY LIGHT AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CONDITIONS TURN COOLER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH AND USHERING IN THE COOLEST AIR
MASS OF THIS EARLY FALL SEASON SO FAR.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING CLOSED LOW
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BY TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK
TO TOP OUT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60, OR
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING THE
COOLEST WEATHER IN SEVERAL MONTHS, WITH 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
AND 40S DOWN TO THE COAST, INCLUDING NYC AND THE URBAN METROS.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS, PASSING TO THE NORTH
ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY VFR. SOME OF THE OUTLYING TERMINALS COULD DROP TO MVFR
OR LOWER IN PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS, ESPECIALLY KGON.
CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z SATURDAY.
LIGHT SW/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SW LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. WINDS
BECOMING NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR WITH NNW WINDS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY, WITH INCREASING SW
FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ON THE OCEAN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS UP TO
5 FT AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT CAN BE EXPECTED HERE.
OTHERWISE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND, LONG ISLAND
BAYS, NY HARBOR AND OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET OUT TO 20 NM.
CONDITIONS THEN GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS N FLOW EARLY SATURDAY VEERS E BY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.
SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN, AND PERHAPS
ALL COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INTO MIDWEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR
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