829
FXUS61 KOKX 162357
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NE
NJ, AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
GALE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS BEYOND 20NM SATURDAY
NIGHT, ELSEWHERE GALE WATCHES CONVERTED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
2) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
3) COASTAL LOW TO FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND
TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED IN COORDINATION WITH SPC. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST HOUR, WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE A THREAT
ANY LONGER.
THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE LINE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DECAYING LINE LIKELY PASSES OFFSHORE IN THE
9 TO 10 PM TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OF
PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET
DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC. MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 50S FOR SATURDAY, ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SATURDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AREA FORECAST TO GET CLOSE TO FREEZING
WITH THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE NORTH WINDS WHICH LIKELY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS FROM GETTING TO FREEZING. SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
A MIX OF CATEGORIES THIS EVENING WITH IFR OR LOWER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH. MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT. EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS LIKELY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER EASTERN
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY KGON AND KISP, POSSIBLY KBDR. MVFR
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.
SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFT TO THE WNW AND NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AND GUST 20-25KT. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30-35 KT POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FROPA. NW GUSTS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BUT INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 25-30KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR LIKELY, A CHANCE OF MVFR IN -SHRA AND A
CHANCE OF NE WIND G25-30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WATCH CONVERTED TO SCA FOR ALL WATERS, EXCEPT THE OUTER
OCEAN ZONES, WHERE THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ROUGH CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON
THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A STRONG N FLOW LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND THE REMAINING WATERS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALES ON THE OCEAN AND SCA CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JP/DW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW
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